Economy.com Daily Update: November 9, 2016

Today's Economy

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election could weigh on global trade.

The new U.S. government will roll back regulations.

The Redbook Index improved but retailers may be in for a weak holiday season.

These were not two generic candidates.

Commentary

Consumption will power expansion in the near term, but weak investment threatens long-term growth.

Economic growth is upbeat, but difficult conditions at home and abroad are downside risks.

This is a tail event—a black swan—with significant global economic implications.

Have a question on the economy? Send it along.

Today's Economic Indicators

United Kingdom
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2016: -£12.7 bil
The U.K. trade balance for goods was in deficit by £12.7 billion in September, widening from an £11.1 billion shortfall in the previous month.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2016: 7.87%
Brazil’s inflation continues to fall toward the target’s upper limit.

OECD
Composite Leading Indicators
Sep. 2016: 99.7
The OECD composite leading indicator remained unchanged at 99.7 in September, roughly in line with values recorded for the past 12 months but 0.5 percentage point lower than 2015's average.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
November 04: -1.2%
Mortgage applications fell again last week, while mortgage rate movements were mixed.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2016: 3.06%
Mexico’s inflation keeps moving up, surpassing the 3% target in October for the first time in the past year and a half. Consumer prices increased 0.61%, a similar rise as in September.

United States
Business Employment Dynamics
2016Q1: 7.0 mil
A complete count of employment for the first quarter of 2016 confirms a slower pace of job creation this year as employers struggled to fill vacancies but lower job losses maintained net gains at a fairly steady pace.

United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Sep. 2016: 0.1%
The inventory build is coming in lighter than expected.

United States
Oil Inventories
November 04: 485.0 mil barrels
Crude oil inventories rose more rapidly than analysts expected, which will put downward pressure on prices.

Philippines
Industrial Production
Sep. 2016:

China
Monetary Aggregates
Oct. 2016:

New Zealand
Monetary Policy
Nov. 2016: 1.75%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its policy rate because of persistently weak inflation.

United States
Tech Pulse
Oct. 2016:

Japan
Machinery Orders
Sep. 2016:

Australia
Housing Finance
Sep. 2016: