| Today's Economy
LatAm Daily Briefing: Brazil’s Political Business Cycle Election-related spending offers a temporary but welcome boost to the economy. Europe Daily Briefing: Euro Zone Inflation Declines for Now Euro zone inflation fell in November. Base effects will push it higher in December. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: China's Factory Activity Slides Again The broad-based fall in the manufacturing PMI raises questions about what stimulus may follow. Economic Roundup: Mixed Message on U.S. Housing Market House price data move in opposite directions in September. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. B2B Tracker: Manufacturing a Slowdown Surveys from Federal Reserve districts around the country show a weakened business environment for goods producers. U.S. Chartbook: Fed Tones It Down Powell suggested the economy will soon need smaller rate hikes for longer. The Ghost of Fiscal Present: Twin Shocks The second of our three-part series on European fiscal rules. This Week in Housing Updates on U.S. house prices, pending sales and jobs this week will set the tone for the housing market. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Sep. 2022: 52.6%
Recession risks around the globe remain uncomfortably high. Netherlands
Retail Sales
Oct. 2022: -6.5% y/y
In October, the volume of retail sales was 6.5% lower than in the same month a year prior. Thailand
Industrial Production
Oct. 2022: -3.7%
Thailand’s industrial production unexpectedly fell 3.7% in October from a year earlier. Thailand
Monetary Policy
Nov. 2022: 1.25%
The Bank of Thailand raised its policy rate for a third time this year, deciding at its November meeting to lift the benchmark by 25 basis points to 1.25%. Finland
GDP
2022Q3: -0.3% q/q
Final estimates showed that Finland’s real GDP contracted in the third quarter by 0.3%, worse than an initially estimated 0.1% loss. Denmark
GDP
2022Q3: % q/q
Denmark
Unemployment rate
Oct. 2022: 2.6%
The Danish unemployment rate was unchanged from September to October, registering 2.6% for the third consecutive month. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2022: US$1.7 bil
In October, Thailand’s foreign trade surplus fell to $1.7 billion from $1.9 billion in September because of a slowdown in exports. France
Household Consumption Survey
Oct. 2022: -2.8% m/m
Spain
Retail Sales
Oct. 2022: 0.4% m/m
Spain's retail sales grew 0.4% month on month in October. Hong Kong SAR (China)
GDP
2022Q3:
Germany
Unemployment
Nov. 2022: 5.6%
In November, the German unemployment rate rose to 5.6% from 5.5% in October. Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2022: 10.0% y/y
According to preliminary estimates, the euro zone’s inflation dropped to 10% y/y in November, down from 10.6% in October. Italy
GDP
2022Q3: 0.5% q/q
Final numbers confirm that Italy's third-quarter GDP grew 0.5% quarter over quarter and 2.6% in year-ago terms. France
GDP
2022Q3: 0.2% q/q
Portugal
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2022: 0
Portugal
Retail Sales
Oct. 2022: 0.5% y/y
Portuguese retail sales increased by 0.5% m/m in October. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
November 25: -0.8%
Mortgage activity slipped 0.8% in the week ended November 25. India
GDP
2022Q3: 6.3% y/y
India’s real GDP for July to September—the second quarter of India's fiscal 2022-2023—came in at 6.3% on a year-ago basis, compared with 13.5% in the fiscal first quarter. Brazil
Employment Situation
Oct. 2022: 8.3%
Brazil’s unemployment rate continued to adjust down in October as activity advanced further. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Oct. 2022: -9.19% y/y
Chile’s manufacturing production remained in negative territory in October as the economy decelerated. Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Oct. 2022: -11.4% y/y
Consumer spending in Chile enjoyed a modest bump in October, but the trend is still pushing lower. United States
GDP
2022Q3: 2.9%, q/q, SAAR
U.S. United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Oct. 2022: 0.8% m/m
Wholesale inventories continue to build steadily while retail stockpiles slipped. United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Oct. 2022: -$99.0 bil
As expected, the trade deficit in goods widened again in October, reaching $99 billion, up $7.1 billion from September. United States
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Oct. 2022: 6.3% openings rate
The labor market is slowly moderating, a key requirement for slowing inflation. United States
Pending Home Sales
Oct. 2022: 77.1
The NAR pending home sales index declined 4.6% to 77.1 in October. Portugal
GDP
2022Q3: 4.9% y/y
Third-quarter Portuguese GDP grew 4.9% year on year. United States
Oil Inventories
November 25: 419.1 mil barrels
A surprisingly precipitous drop in crude oil inventories will likely push up on oil prices. United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
November 27: 2.87%
Inflation expectations have risen sharply in November, despite some encouraging data suggesting price pressures are beginning to ease. Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Oct. 2022: -9.7% y/y
Russia’s retail sales contracted by 9.7% y/y in October, deepening the 9.8% decline in September. Russian Federation
Unemployment
Oct. 2022: 3.9%
United States
Beige Book
Nov. 2022:
U.S. economic activity was about flat or up slightly since the last reporting period, according to the Federal Reserve’s November Beige Book. Belgium
GDP
2022Q3: 0.2% q/q
United States
Agricultural Prices
Oct. 2022: -2.7% m/m
The Agricultural Prices Received Index decreased 2.7% to 127.7 in October. South Korea
GDP
2022Q3:
South Korea
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2022:
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