Economy.com Daily Update: November 29, 2024

Today's Economy

Industrial production rose, but it failed to match expectations.

Euro zone economic sentiment ekes out growth in November, but risks persist.

A cut seemed unlikely for many reasons.

The number of French job seekers is at its highest since September 2022.

Commentary

November employment will be in the spotlight as we look to see how strongly job growth rebounded following a weak October.

We expect the preliminary estimate of 0.4% q/q GDP growth in the euro zone to be confirmed.

Australian GDP data will likely show limp third-quarter growth versus the second quarter.

The outlook for China's industrial firms is going from bad to worse.

Today's Economic Indicators

Finland
GDP
2024Q3: 0.3% q/q
Final estimates showed Finland’s real GDP advanced by 0.3% quarter over quarter in the third quarter, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in the second quarter.

France
GDP
2024Q3: 0.4% q/q
France’s GDP growth rate was 0.4% q/q during the third quarter, up from 0.2% in the second.

Sweden
GDP
2024Q3: 0.3% q/q
Sweden’s GDP grew 0.3% q/q during the third quarter, following zero growth in the second.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2024: -US$0.8 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade balance flipped to a deficit of $794.4 million in October from a surplus of $394.2 million in September.

Taiwan (China)
GDP
2024Q3: 4.2% y/y
Taiwan’s third-quarter GDP was revised upwards to 4.2% y/y from the advance estimate of 4%.

Switzerland
GDP
2024Q3: 0.2% q/q
Switzerland’s GDP grew 0.2% q/q in the third quarter, slowing from a 0.4% rise in the second quarter.

Germany
Retail Sales
Oct. 2024: -1.5% m/m
In October, retail sales in Germany fell 1.5% month over month in real terms and 1.1% in nominal terms, adjusting for calendar and seasonal effects.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Retail Sales
Oct. 2024: -2.9% y/y
Hong Kong’s retail sales fell 2.9% year over year in value terms in October, better than our expectations of a 5.2% drop.

Spain
Retail Sales
Oct. 2024: 0.0% m/m
Spain’s retail sales remained flat in October relative to the previous month in seasonally adjusted and calendar-adjusted terms.

Germany
Unemployment
Nov. 2024: 6.1%
The labor market continues to deteriorate.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2024: 2.3% y/y
The euro zone’s HICP inflation rate rose to 2.3% y/y in November, up from 2% in October.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Oct. 2024: 3.01% y/y
National manufacturing production rebounded significantly in October after a surprising contraction in the previous month caused by temporary disruptions.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Oct. 2024: 6.2%
The unemployment rate adjusted down again in October as the economy continued to advance steadily and created additional jobs.

India
GDP
2024Q3: 5.4% y/y
India’s real GDP for the September quarter grew 5.4% year over year, down significantly from the previous quarter’s reading of 6.7%.

Canada
GDP
2024Q3: 1.0% SAAR
A rebound in household consumption and robust government spending were not enough to lift weak GDP growth in the third quarter.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Sep. 2024: 0.1% m/m
Closing out the third quarter, real gross domestic product inched up 0.1% in September after moving sideways in the month prior.

Belgium
GDP
2024Q3: 0.3% q/q
Final estimates showed that Belgium’s real GDP advanced by 0.3% q/q in the third quarter of 2024, following an upwardly revised 0.3% q/q reading in the second quarter.

Portugal
GDP
2024Q3: 0.2% q/q
Portugal's real GDP quarter-over-quarter growth remained at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous quarter and below our initial expectations.

China
Manufacturing PMI
Nov. 2024: