Economy.com Daily Update: November 29, 2019

Today's Economy

The pickup in inflation doesn’t change our dovish story for the ECB.

Monetary and fiscal support will help subdued domestic demand in coming months.

Economic sentiment rose in November, but the euro zone isn't out of the woods.

Japan's retail trade plunged by 7.1% y/y in October, following the tax hike.

Commentary

In Brazil, the annual inflation rate likely rebounded.

Reforms and stimulus are working, but political tensions remain.

Low interest rates have everyone feeling good.

The trend in initial jobless claims has clearly softened a bit.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Nov. 2019: 38.7
Japan's consumer confidence defied expectations for further deterioration and improved to 38.7 in November, marking the highest reading in five months and following from 36.2 in October.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2019: US$2.1 bil
Thailand's trade surplus narrowed to US$2.1 billion in October from US$2.7 billion in September. Exports declined the most in five months, by 5% y/y.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Oct. 2019: 0.2%
Household expenditure on goods grew by 0.2% m/m in October, partially offsetting the upwardly-revised 0.3% decline in September.

Germany
Retail Sales
Oct. 2019: -1.9%
Real and calendar-adjusted retail sales decreased by 1.9% m/m in October.

France
GDP
2019Q3: 0.3%
The final estimate of French third-quarter GDP confirmed that the economy grew by 0.3% q/q, matching the previous stanza's rate and in line with the consensus.

Germany
Unemployment
Nov. 2019: 5.0%
The German unemployment rate stayed at 5% in November.

Italy
Unemployment
Oct. 2019: 9.7%
Italy’s unemployment rate ticked down to 9.7% in October from 9.9% in September.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2019: 1.0%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation rose to an above-consensus 1% y/y in November from 0.7% in October.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Oct. 2019: 7.5%
The euro zone’s jobless rate fell to 7.5% in October from an upwardly-revised 7.6% reading in September, remaining at its lowest in more than 11 years.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Oct. 2019: 11.6%
Unemployment was adjusted down in October after remaining unchanged in the previous three months.

Italy
GDP
2019Q3: 0.1%
Final numbers confirmed that Italy's real GDP grew 0.1% q/q and 0.3% y/y over the third quarter The details were even less encouraging than the headline.

India
GDP
2019Q3: 4.5%
After a rocky first quarter of the 2019-2020 fiscal year that saw real GDP growth slow to 5%, in the second quarter (July-September) India’s real GDP growth cooled further to 4.5%, compared with a forecast of 5.3%.

Chile
Employment
Oct. 2019:

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Oct. 2019: -5.8%
Chile’s industry slumped in October, as social protests in the last two weeks of the month hurt production.

Canada
GDP
2019Q3: 1.3%
The pace of GDP growth slowed markedly in the third quarter as exports fell.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Oct. 2019: 0.1%

Canada
Industry Output
Sep. 2019: 0.1%
Canadian GDP moved slightly higher in September.

Japan
Industrial Production
Oct. 2019: -4.2%
Japan’s seasonally adjusted industrial production plunged by 4.2% m/m in October, reversing the 1.7% rise in September.

China
Manufacturing PMI
Nov. 2019: