Economy.com Daily Update: November 27, 2024

Today's Economy

The number of French job seekers is at its highest since September 2022.

The Mideast agreement is a positive development, while U.S. economic data were strong ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

The RBNZ and RBA are on different paths.

Storms were partly to blame for October's 17% monthly decline in new residential sales.

Commentary

The incoming U.S. president is bad news for the bloc, but the impact should be manageable.

The economy is performing well, and inflation is easing, but renewed tariff risks cloud the sky.

Tariffs will weigh on growth while adding to inflation pressures.

Lackluster demand remains the dominant theme of the oil market.

Today's Economic Indicators

Thailand
Industrial Production
Oct. 2024: -0.9% y/y
Thailand's industrial production fell 0.9% year on year in October, proving our forecast for a 2% contraction too pessimistic.

France
Job Seekers
Oct. 2024: 2.89 mil
In October, the number of job seekers in France surged by 53,600 to 2.89 million, the sharpest increase since the pandemic-induced surge in April 2020.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Oct. 2024: US$370.8 mil
The trade account turned marginally positive in October as exports recovered, particularly manufacturing products sold abroad.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
November 22: 6.3%
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped back under 7% in the week ended November 22, and mortgage activity rose solidly.

United States
GDP
2024Q3: 2.8%, q/q, SAAR
U.S. economic growth remained strong in the third quarter, coming in at 2.8%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Oct. 2024: 0.1% m/m
Real consumer spending growth moderated in October but remained on a healthy trend.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Oct. 2024: 0.2% m/m
According to the advance estimate, wholesale inventories rose by 0.2% in October, following a decline in the prior month.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Oct. 2024: -$99.1 bil
The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to $99.1 billion in October, $9.6 billion less than the $108.7 billion deficit in September.

United States
Jobless Claims
November 23: 213,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance are holding steady.

United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Oct. 2024: 0.2% m/m
New orders for U.S. durable goods rose a modest 0.2% in October, snapping a two-month slide in orders.

United States
FOMC Minutes
Nov. 2024:
Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s November meeting show members felt labor market and inflation risks were roughly in balance and a further reduction to the fed funds rate was in order.

World
Moody's Analytics Global HPI
2024Q3: 2.9% y/y

United States
Personal Income
Oct. 2024: 0.6% m/m
Nominal personal income jumped 0.6% in October, well above our and consensus expectations.

United States
PCE Deflator
Oct. 2024: 0.2% m/m
In line with expectations, the personal consumption expenditure deflator rose 0.2% in October.

United States
Pending Home Sales
Oct. 2024: 2.0% m/m
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index rose again in October, up 2% from the previous month and 5.4% on a year-ago basis.

United States
Oil Inventories
November 22: 428.4 mil barrels
Oil inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels in the week ended November 22, a larger draw than the consensus forecast of 500,000 barrels.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
November 22: -2 bil cubic feet
Last week’s draw in natural gas inventories was not too far from analyst predictions, so this report will likely have little impact on prices.

South Korea
Monetary Policy
Nov. 2024: