Economy.com Daily Update: November 25, 2020

Today's Economy

We will return on Monday, November 30.

Resurgent COVID-19 may not fully manifest itself in the quarterly GDP growth rate until Q1 2021.

Lagged data were solid, but weekly initial claims are cause for concern.

Uruguay's manufacturing has resumed its path toward recovery.

Commentary

October figures on industrial production and retail sales will paint a sharper picture of regional disparities.

States that earlier had weathered the economic effects of the pandemic better are in a very different position today.

The alarming escalation of COVID-19 infections will cast a pall over the labor market in coming quarters.

We expect third-quarter GDP to be revised higher in the government’s second estimate.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
November 25:

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
November 20: 3.9%
Mortgage applications jumped by 3.9% in the week ending November 20, reversing the 0.3% decrease in the previous week.

United States
GDP
2020Q3: 33.1%
The pandemic has created unprecedented volatility in U.S.

United States
Jobless Claims
November 21: 778,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 30,000 to 778,000 in the week ended November 21.

United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Oct. 2020: 1.3%
U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.3% in October, better than we and the consensus expected.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Oct. 2020: 0.9%
Wholesale inventories rose 0.9% in October.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Oct. 2020: -$80.3 bil
The advance U.S. nominal goods deficit widened to $80.3 billion in October.

Mexico
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Sep. 2020: -7.1%
Retail stores reported a further advance in sales as the reopening continued in September.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Nov. 2020: 76.9
U.S. consumer sentiment slipped in November to its lowest level since August as the increase in COVID-19 infections seemingly outweighed any wave of election relief.

United States
New-Home Sales
Oct. 2020: 999,000
U.S. new-home sales fell from a revised 1.002 million annualized units in September (previously 959,000) to 999,000 in October, close to our forecast but above consensus expectations.

United States
Personal Income
Oct. 2020: -0.7%
Personal income contracted in October, falling 0.7% from September's 0.7% growth.

United States
PCE Deflator
Oct. 2020: 0.0%
Inflationary pressures remain muted as a significant amount of slack remains in the both the labor market and the broader economy.

United States
Personal Spending
Oct. 2020: 0.5%
Real consumer spending continued its rebound in October and while the pace slowed, there were net upward revisions to prior months.

United States
Oil Inventories
November 20: 488.7 mil barrels
A small yet unexpected draw will lend modest upward momentum to oil prices.

France
Job Seekers
Oct. 2020: 3.55 mil
The number of French job seekers fell by 56,600 to 3.55 million in October.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
November 20: -18 bil cubic feet
The decline in natural gas inventories fell slightly short of consensus expectations, a small negative for gas prices.

United States
FOMC Minutes
Nov. 2020:
The minutes from the November meeting hint that some forward guidance on the Fed’s quantitative easing could be implemented soon, possibly as early as December.