| Today's Economy
LatAm Daily Briefing: Brazil’s Crisis of Confidence A potent mix of domestic upheavals sends the economy into a relapse. Capital Markets View: The Time Has Come for the Fed To Taper The Fed will announce tapering and acknowledge higher inflation for longer. Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 30—Probability of Recession and Puppies for Everyone What are the chances of negative U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter? Depends who you ask. Europe Daily Briefing: German Retail Drops in September After a strong summer, German retail is cooling off. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 1, 2021 One reason that labor supply constraints should be less binding is that wage growth is accelerating. This Week in the COVID-19 Recovery We remain steadfast in our forecast that the U.S. economy will return to full employment by spring 2023. U.S. Chartbook: Pay Bumps, Growth Slumps In the third quarter, consumer spending contributed only 1.1 percentage points to growth, down from 7.9 percentage points in the prior quarter. European Inflation Is Up but Won't Stick Commodities are where we see the most concrete risk of more permanent inflationary pressures. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United States
Vehicle Sales - BEA
Oct. 2021:
Hong Kong SAR (China)
GDP
2021Q3: 5.4% y/y
Hong Kong's economy improved in the third quarter, according to advance estimates, with real GDP expanding by 5.4% over the year, following the revised 7.6% expansion in the prior quarter. Germany
Retail Sales
Sep. 2021: -2.5% m/m
German retail sales fell unexpectedly in September, dropping by 2.5% m/m. United States
Monthly GDP
Sep. 2021: 0.0% m/m
The U.S. doesn’t have a lot of momentum heading into the fourth quarter. United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Oct. 2021: 60.8
There is no sign in the ISM manufacturing survey that global supply-chain issues are abating. United States
Construction Spending (C30)
Sep. 2021: -0.5% m/m
The value of U.S. construction put in place in September declined 0.5% from its revised August level. World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
October 29: 18.0
Global business sentiment improved meaningfully last week, with more than half of respondents to the survey saying present business conditions are improving and close to two-thirds saying their sales are strengthening. Peru
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 5.8% y/y
Inflation in the Lima metropolitan area, a barometer of consumer prices at the national level, rose 5.8% in October on a year-ago basis. South Korea
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021:
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