Economy.com Daily Update: May 16, 2022

Today's Economy

Empire State manufacturers are looking wobbly, while U.S. vehicle affordability deteriorates.

Is this the price of avoiding a depression?

Mexico’s unfocused manufacturing sector is holding back the nation’s overall economy.

Consumer spending isn't likely to backtrack in the near term.

Commentary

The economy is highly sensitive to changes in household consumption.

Housing starts and permits likely declined in April.

Risks are uncomfortably high and rising as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to slow growth and quell inflation; a few indicators are worth watching to gauge whether we are headed for a downturn.

Rate hikes take center stage as regional economies deal with inflation’s effects.

Today's Economic Indicators

Euro Zone
External Trade
Mar. 2022: -€16.4 bil
The euro zone’s trade balance in goods fell to a deficit of €16.4 billion this March from a year-earlier surplus of €22.5 billion in March 2021.

Canada
Housing Starts
Apr. 2022: 267 ths
Canada's residential construction data for April came in stronger than in March.

Canada
Wholesale Trade
Mar. 2022: 0.3% m/m
Rising prices helped to keep wholesale trade above water in March, but the volume of activity contracted.

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Mar. 2022: 2.5% m/m
Manufacturing sales continue to impress with their sixth consecutive month of growth.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
May. 2022: -11.6
April's strong top-line reading in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey now looks like a one-month blip, as the May report indicated a decline in current conditions that closely mirrors March's report.

India
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2022: -US$20.1 bil
India’s merchandise trade deficit ballooned again in April, rising from $18.5 billion the previous month to $20.1 billion, due to a decline in exports.

World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
May 13: -4.5
Global businesses remain highly anxious because of the economic fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the relentless COVID-19 pandemic and, most recently, rising interest rates.

Peru
Unemployment
Apr. 2022: 8.3%
The April jobs report for metropolitan Lima surprised to the upside, with stronger than expected job gains pushing the unemployment rate down to 8.3%.

United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Apr. 2022: 40.6 weeks, NSA
The Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index increased to a record high in April.

Colombia
GDP
2022Q1: 8.5% y/y
Colombia's economy expanded by a better-than-anticipated 8.5% y/y in the first quarter supported by pent-up demand, still-expansive policies, and high international energy prices.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Mar. 2022: $23.1 bil
Net long-term capital flows were positive for the 11th straight month in March, with net inflows totaling $23.1 billion.

Singapore
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2022:

Thailand
GDP
2022Q1: