Economy.com Daily Update: March 7, 2025

Today's Economy

February's employment report confirmed that the labor market is moderating.

Euro zone GDP growth surprises to the upside, but momentum has still slowed in the fourth quarter.

Relations between the EU and the U.S. are tense, particularly with regard to Ukraine.

Exports rose and imports fell versus the same two months of 2024.

Commentary

February's CPI report is likely to bring the year-ago inflation rate down from 3% to 2.9%.

Under constant threat of U.S. tariffs, the economy hangs in the balance.

Proposed U.S. tariffs on EU pharmaceuticals are an unwanted headache for European manufacturers.

Industrial recovery in the euro zone will be only partial as headwinds persist amid high production costs and tepid demand for goods.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Consumption Activity Index
Jan. 2025: -1.3% m/m
The Bank of Japan's real consumption activity index, adjusted for travel, tumbled 1.3% month over month in January, a reading far worse than we had expected.

Thailand
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2025: 1.1% y/y
Headline inflation in Thailand eased to 1.1% year on year in February from 1.3% in January, matching our expectations.

Taiwan (China)
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2025: 1.6% y/y
Taiwan’s consumer price inflation slowed to 1.6% y/y in February from 2.7% in January.

Taiwan (China)
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2025: US$6.6 bil
Taiwan’s trade surplus shrank to $6.6 billion in February from $10 billion in January.

Spain
Industrial Production
Jan. 2025: -1.0% m/m
Spain's industrial production fell 1% month over month in January after adjusting for seasonal and calendar variations.

Euro Zone
GDP
2024Q4: 0.2% q/q
The euro zone’s GDP increased by 0.2% q/q in real terms during the fourth quarter of 2024, slowing from a 0.4% increase in the third quarter.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2025: 4.73% y/y
Chile’s inflation declined in February but remained high and outside the 5% mark as prices continued to show upward pressures.

Brazil
GDP
2024Q4: 3.6% y/y
Brazil’s economy finally moderated at the end of the year after a strong policy-induced expansion.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2025: 3.77% y/y
Annual inflation in Mexico trended up in February despite the price moderation, mainly because of the base effect.

United States
Employment Situation
Feb. 2025: 151,000 m/m
The labor market showed signs of further moderation in February.

Canada
Industrial Capacity Utilization
2024Q4: 79.8%
In the fourth quarter, industrial capacity utilization moved higher from 79.4% to 79.8%.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Feb. 2025: 6.6%
The labor market is catching its breath, pausing in February after three strong months of job growth.

United States
Moody’s Analytics House Price Index
Jan. 2025: 4.8%
House price growth ticked lower to start the year, according to the Moody’s Analytics Home Price Index. Over the month, prices rose 0.5%, and annual price appreciation slipped to 4.8% after a 4.9% increase in December.

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2025: -US$324 mil
Brazil’s trade surplus vanished in February as exports remained subdued and imports rebounded significantly.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Jan. 2025: 7.1% y/y
Argentina’s manufacturing has begun a solid recovery amid a rapidly improving macroeconomic environment.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2025: US$1630.3 mil
Chile's trade surplus narrowed in February as exports drifted sideways and imports increased.

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Jan. 2025: $18.1 bil
Outstanding consumer credit in the U.S. expanded $18.1 billion in the first month of 2025, stronger than our call for a modest rise.

Colombia
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2025: