Economy.com Daily Update: March 31, 2017

Today's Economy

Slower growth squeezes the government's 2017 revenues.

February's warm weather and delayed tax refunds are partly to blame.

Jobs likely were added in March, but the unemployment rate probably edged higher.

Japan's February data barrage was nothing special; Q1 GDP tracks at 1% annualized.

Commentary

Capital goods output has been volatile in the euro zone’s biggest economy lately.

A lower yen is helping production and inflation, but weak wages continue to crimp consumption.

Japanese consumers are feeling better.

Inflation behaves, except in Mexico.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Housing Starts
Feb. 2017: -2.6%
Housing starts slowed in March because of payback from the rapid growth posted in the prior month.

United Kingdom
Nationwide Housing Price Index
Mar. 2017: 3.5%
The Nationwide Housing Price Index gained only 3.5% y/y in March, down sharply from a 4.5% rise in the previous month and the lowest rate of expansion since August 2015.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Feb. 2017: -0.8%
With spending on energy plummeting nearly 11%, French household spending on goods fell a total of 0.8% m/m in February, after adding 0.6% m/m previously.

France
Producer Price Index
Feb. 2017: 3.9%
Annual producer price inflation accelerated again in February, with producer prices gaining 3.9% y/y following an upwardly revised 3.6% increase in the previous month.

Germany
Lending by Banks
Feb. 2017: 2.5%
German bank lending to private enterprises rose year on year in February for the 15th consecutive month.

Germany
Retail Sales
Feb. 2017: 1.8%
German retail sales rebounded in February, adding 1.8% m/m from January when they fell by 1%.

Spain
Retail Sales
Feb. 2017: 0.2%
Spain's retail trade gained 0.2% in February, taking back a bit of the 1.2% decline in the previous month.

Thailand
Private Consumption
Feb. 2017: 4.0%
Consumer spending in Thailand will remain uneven while income growth remains weak.

Thailand
Industrial Production
Feb. 2017:

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2017: US$4.0 bil
Stronger global demand will boost Thailand’s exports throughout the first half of 2017.

Germany
Unemployment
Mar. 2017: 5.8%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to a new record low of 5.8% in March.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Mar. 2017: 1.5%
Euro zone annual harmonized inflation slowed to 1.5% in March from a four-year high of 2% in the previous month, more than we expected.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Feb. 2017: 13.2%
B

Chile
Employment
Feb. 2017: 6.4%
The national unemployment rate averaged 6.4% in the December-February rolling quarter, up from 5.9% a year earlier.

United States
Personal Income
Feb. 2017: 0.4%
Growth in nominal personal income decelerated to 0.4% in February from a revised 0.5% gain in January, but beat our forecast for a 0.3% increase.

United States
PCE Deflator
Feb. 2017: 0.1%
U.S. inflation cooled some in February but core inflation was a bit firmer than we anticipated, keeping the door open for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the first half of this year.

United States
Personal Spending
Feb. 2017: -0.1%
Consumer spending fell again in February.

Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Jan. 2017: 1.8%
The Canadian labor market took a breather in January.

Canada
Industry Output
Jan. 2017: 0.6%
Canadian real GDP growth is starting the year with a bang.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Mar. 2017: 96.9
The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey increased modestly, as the topline index rose to 96.9 from 96.3 in February, buying back some of last month's 2.2-point drop.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
March 24: 144.1
The U.S. economy will expand over the coming quarters, supported by rising wages and strong consumer and investment sentiment.