Economy.com Daily Update: March 28, 2022

Today's Economy

Retail sales fell in Denmark and Norway but inched up in Ireland this February.

We discuss the economic hit from the military incursion in Ukraine as reflected in the Fed's geopolitical risk index.

Downside risks loom, and Hong Kong’s trade deficit might widen.

The University of Michigan survey has dropped sharply but seems to be the outlier.

Commentary

The Continent finds itself in a new geopolitical environment and the immediate challenge of sheltering the millions escaping Ukraine.

We look for another solid gain in nonfarm employment and a drop in the unemployment rate.

Current expansions in Argentina and Uruguay are solid, while Mexico’s is still a bit tentative.

Euro zone unemployment likely was unchanged at 6.8% in February, though German unemployment likely slid 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%.

Today's Economic Indicators

Denmark
Retail Sales
Feb. 2022: -1.2% m/m
Retail sales in Denmark fell 1.2% m/m in February from January.

Norway
Retail Sales
Feb. 2022: -1.3% m/m
Norway’s retail sales excluding motor vehicles and fuel fell 1.3% m/m in February after a small 0.4% increase in January.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2022: -HK$32.1 bil
Hong Kong posted a HKD32.1 billion deficit in February, contrasting with the HKD6.6 billion trade surplus in January.

Ireland
Retail Sales
Feb. 2022: 0.3% m/m
Irish retail sales excluding motor trades increased by 0.3% m/m in February following a 0.1% m/m increase in January.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Feb. 2022: US$1.293 bil
The trade balance turned positive in February after a negative result in the previous month.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Feb. 2022: 2.1% m/m
The advance estimate of wholesale and retail inventories indicates a strong build in February.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Feb. 2022: -$106.6 bil
The U.S. advance nominal goods deficit narrowed slightly in February, coming in at $106.6 billion after a $107.6 billion deficit in January.

World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
March 25: -0.2
Global business sentiment remains in the doldrums.

United States
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Mar. 2022: 8.7
Texas factory activity remained elevated in March, though there were some signs of weakening.

Argentina
Retail Sales Index
Jan. 2022: 101.0% y/y
The index that tracks nominal sales at Buenos Aires’ largest shopping centers increased 101% y/y in January after rising 117% in the previous month.

South Korea
Consumer Sentiment Index
Mar. 2022:

Japan
Employment Situation
Feb. 2022:

Australia
Retail Sales
Feb. 2022:

Thailand
Industrial Production
Feb. 2022: