Economy.com Daily Update: March 10, 2017

Today's Economy

Rising energy prices and a steady global recovery will restore more regular surpluses.

The central bank will raise the fed funds target next week with two more increases likely this year.

For a variety of factors, joblessness has declined generally across the continent.

Payback is coming, but the U.S. continues to move toward full employment.

Commentary

Like the ECB, we expect the BoE to keep its policy stance unchanged.

Upbeat import and inflation data indicate domestic demand is firm.

The housing market is buoying China's Q1, but the Lunar New Year makes analysis difficult.

Industrial production is weak in Colombia and Mexico, and robust in Uruguay.

Today's Economic Indicators

France
Industrial Production
Jan. 2017: -0.3%
France's industrial production surprised on the downside in January. After a revised 1.1% contraction in December, production dropped 0.3% m/m seasonally adjusted.

Spain
Retail Sales
Jan. 2017: -1.1%
Spain's retail trade fell 1.1% in January, while December’s number was revised downwards to a 0.3% decline. In year-ago terms, the index remained in positive territory, adding 0.1% in January after a 2.1% increase in the previous month.

Germany
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2017: €18.5 bil
Germany's trade surplus was little changed at €18.5 billion in January compared with €18.3 billion in the previous month.

United Kingdom
Industrial Production
Jan. 2017: -0.4%
U.K. industrial production surprised on the downside and dropped 0.4% m/m in January, following a 0.9% rise in the previous month.

United Kingdom
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2017: -£10.8 bil
The U.K. trade balance for goods was in deficit by £10.8 billion in January, marginally down from a £10.9 billion shortfall in the previous month.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2017: 4.76%
Brazil’s inflation continued to fall in February as monthly increases moderate.

India
Industrial Production
Jan. 2017: 2.7%
Production across India remains weak, as corporations refuse to increase investment.

United States
Employment Situation
Feb. 2017: 235,000
February marks another strong month in the labor market.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Feb. 2017: 6.6%
February was a quiet month for the Canadian labor market.

United States
ECRI Future Inflation Gauge
Feb. 2017: 113.4 (U.S.)
The increase in the ECRI Future Inflation Gauge suggests that inflation will accelerate.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
March 03: 144.9
The U.S. economy will continue to expand over the coming quarters supported by strong economic fundamentals, but gains will moderate as the economy approaches full employment.

United States
Treasury Budget
Feb. 2017: -$192.0 bil
The U.S. federal budget deficit in fiscal 2017 is on a better trajectory than a year earlier.