Economy.com Daily Update: March 1, 2018

Today's Economy

The recovery will be limited if investment remains anemic.

Growing discontent will challenge the status quo, but Italy is unlikely to withdraw from the European Union.

As a share of covered employment, initial claims are the lowest since the inception of the data.

The fourth quarter saw a net positive from revisions.

Commentary

Even when consumers are optimistic, the immediate impact on spending isn't significant.

Inflation moderated in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico while increasing in Uruguay.

Minimal revisions are expected to Japan's Q4 GDP data, which show a 0.1% q/q expansion.

Commercial real estate's trajectory in the coming years in the U.S. likely involves slower growth.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Feb. 2018: 44.3
Japan's consumer confidence slipped in February but held up more than we had anticipated.

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Jan. 2018:

United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Feb. 2018: 17.1 mil, SAAR
February U.S. new vehicle sales fell to 17.08 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, which constitutes a decrease of 2.4% compared with last year.

Spain
GDP
2017Q4: 0.7%
Spain’s final GDP report confirmed that the economy expanded by 0.7% q/q in the fourth quarter, though third quarter growth was revised down to 0.7%, from 0.8%. In yearly terms, the economy still grew by 3.1%, the same as in the previous stanza.

Italy
Unemployment
Jan. 2018: 11.1%
Italy’s unemployment rate rose to 11.1% in January, from an upwardly revised 10.9% in December, and from 11.7% a year earlier.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Jan. 2018: 8.6%
In line with our expectations, the euro zone’s jobless rate was 8.6% in January, its joint-lowest reading since the end of 2008 and stable compared with a downwardly revised figure for December.

Brazil
GDP
2017Q4: 2.1%
Brazil’s economy continued to recover in the last quarter of 2017, staying in positive territory during the year.

Peru
Consumer Price Index
Feb. 2018: 1.2%
Consumer prices in the Lima metropolitan area rose at an even slower pace in February, cementing doubts about the Peruvian economy’s vigor.

United States
Jobless Claims
February 24: 210,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits provide further confirmation of a healthy labor market.

United States
Personal Income
Jan. 2018: 0.4%
Nominal personal income growth was steady at 0.4% in January from an unrevised 0.4% gain in December, beating our forecast for a 0.3% increase.

United States
PCE Deflator
Jan. 2018: 0.4%
Financial markets are homed in on U.S. inflation.

United States
Personal Spending
Jan. 2018: -0.1%
Consumer spending slumped in January, but special factors likely played a role and the outlook remains strong.

Canada
Balance of International Payments
2017Q4: -C$16.3 bil
Canada's seasonally adjusted current account deficit narrowed to C$16.3 billion in the fourth quarter, mainly because of a lower goods deficit.

United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Feb. 2018: 60.8
Manufacturing could add more to growth this quarter than we previously anticipated.

United States
Construction Spending (C30)
Jan. 2018: 0.0%
U.S. construction spending was virtually flat in January, falling below the consensus expectation of a 0.3% increase.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
February 23: -1.17
Financial stress conditions eased for the second straight week following the steep selloff in equity markets earlier this year.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
February 23: -78 bil cubic feet
The drawdown in natural gas inventories was roughly in line with industry analyst expectations, which will have little effect on gas prices.

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Feb. 2018: US$4.91 bil
Brazil’s trade surplus rebounded in February as exports increased and imports declined.

World
Moody's Analytics Global HPI
2017Q4: 5.6%

Japan
Employment Situation
Jan. 2018:

South Korea
Retail Sales
Jan. 2018: