| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: We're Not Calling Trump's Bluff on Tariffs The president reiterates his tariff threats on Mexico as the U.S. labor market softens. European Commission: Italy Likely Violating Debt Rules Launching an Excessive Deficit Procedure would require approval of EU finance ministers. Europe Daily Briefing: Don’t Throw in the Towel on Consumers Euro zone retail figures were disappointing, but there is no reason for despair. Share Prices of Motor Vehicle and Parts Companies Suddenly Burn Rubber The Fed's cutting of interest rates in response to the yield curve in 1998 prevented a recession. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Road to Recession: Paved With Tariffs? The use of tariffs as a policy lever could cause us to adjust the odds around our trade war scenarios. The Macroeconomic Impact of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Clean Energy Plan The presidential candidate has a proposal to address climate change and infrastructure. Tariffs Tracker: Oh the Places You’ll Tariff As the trade wars escalate, threats to the U.S. economy are mounting. U.S. Chartbook: The Calm Before the Tweetstorm Last week’s data predate the latest rounds of trade war escalation. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Spain
Industrial Production
Apr. 2019: 1.8%
Spain’s industrial production increased 1.8% in April. Euro Zone
Retail Sales
Apr. 2019: -0.4%
Euro zone retail sales fell by 0.4% m/m in April after they held steady in March, pushing the yearly increase in the sector down to 1.5% from 2% previously. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
May 31: 1.5%
The top-line market index ticked up 1.5% in the week of May 31, with a downtick in purchases but a rise in refinances. United States
ADP National Employment Report
May. 2019: 27,000
The labor market is showing signs of slowing. Chile
Monthly Economic Activity Indicator
Apr. 2019: 2.1%
Chile's index of economic activity reported an annual increase of 2.1% in April, despite the seasonal effects of Easter, after growth of 1.8% in the previous month and 6.5% a year earlier. United States
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
May. 2019: 56.9
The U.S. nonmanufacturing sector fared better in May than we anticipated, but the current pace of expansion is not sustainable. United States
Oil Inventories
May 31: 483.3 mil barrels
A surprising jump higher in oil inventories will put downward pressure on oil prices. United States
Beige Book
Jun. 2019:
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, covering economic activity from April through mid-May, indicates that economic activity expanded modestly over the reporting period. Uruguay
Consumer Price Index
May. 2019: 7.8%
Consumer price growth took a step back in May, falling to 7.7% on a year-ago basis from 8.2% in April. Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Apr. 2019: -8.8%
Industrial output contracted 8.8% y/y in April (NSA) after a 13.9% y/y drop in the previous month. Colombia
Consumer Price Index
May. 2019:
Australia
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2019:
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