| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Labor Week The U.S. economic calendar started the week on a quiet note but will pick up with data that will give updated insights into the labor market. Europe Daily Briefing: First (and Only) Deal The U.K.-U.S. trade deal came into effect Monday, slashing auto tariffs, among others. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: Japanese Manufacturers Battle On Industrial production grew just 0.5% in May from April. Economic Roundup: Deluge of Data to End the Week Inflation remains in check, but spending and income retreat. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Euro Zone Inflation Tracker: Mission Accomplished? We are bidding farewell to the inflation tracker as May's print dips below the 2% target. U.S. Household Debt Levels Manageable in Aggregate Problems exist in pockets. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 27, 2025 We look for headline job growth to slow to 110,000 in June. Europe Weekly Highlights and Preview, 27 June 2025 We are expecting the June estimate of euro zone HICP inflation to come in at 2% y/y. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Jun. 2025: 32.3%
World recession risks jumped to 32.3% in April from a revised 22.8% in March. Thailand
Industrial Production
May. 2025: 1.9% y/y
Thai industrial production rose 1.9% y/y in May, landing short of our forecast for 2.4% growth. Denmark
GDP
2025Q1: -1.3% q/q
Final Danish first-quarter GDP numbers came in below our expectations after a further downward revision. United Kingdom
GDP - Quarterly
2025Q1: 0.7% q/q
The 0.7% surge in U.K. Germany
Retail Sales
May. 2025: -1.6% m/m
Retail turnover contracted 1.6% m/m in May, amounting to 1.6% y/y growth. Thailand
Foreign Trade
May. 2025: US$1.1 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade balance flipped to a $1.1 billion surplus in May from a $3.3 billion deficit in April. India
Industrial Production
May. 2025: 1.2% y/y
India's industrial production rose 1.2% over the year in May, which was slower than the 2.7% year-on-year gain in April. Chile
Employment
May. 2025: 8.9%
The Chilean labor market deteriorated more than expected in the March-May period amid an uncertain external and domestic environment. Chile
Manufacturing Production
May. 2025: 2.9% y/y
The national industry reported further gains in May, with production normalizing after the Easter seasonal effects. World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
June 27: 16.7%
Global businesses are cautious. United States
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Jun. 2025: -12.7
Texas factory activity was largely unchanged in June. Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
May. 2025: 3.5% y/y
Chilean consumers pared spending in May after a weak showing in April and only modest growth in March. Argentina
Economic Activity Indicator
Apr. 2025: 7.7% y/y
The statistics office’s monthly economic output index (a proxy for GDP) increased 7.7% year on year in April after 5.4% in the previous month. Japan
Tankan Survey
2025Q2:
South Korea
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2025:
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