Economy.com Daily Update: June 25, 2021

Today's Economy

New data bite into the Q2 U.S. GDP tracking estimate.

The pandemic has created structural shifts in industry employment, creating labor market frictions.

They favor oil prices ending this year higher than we expect.

Population growth has slowed to 1.1% from 2.5% a decade ago.

Commentary

Many retail segments see strong price growth, but not all.

Trade continues to be a strength in Mexico and Brazil.

Many businesses that closed were likely the smallest and most vulnerable.

We'll get a better idea of how the recovery will be this summer with next week's data.

Today's Economic Indicators

Singapore
Industrial Production
May. 2021: 30.0% y/y
Singapore's industrial production accelerated by 30% y/y in May for its seventh straight month of growth, with help from a low base a year ago during the two-month circuit-breaker measures.

Denmark
Retail Sales
May. 2021: 0.2% m/m
Denmark's rollercoaster ride of retail sales ended in May.

Spain
GDP
2021Q1: -0.4% q/q
Spain's GDP contracted by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2021 as a result of the third wave of COVID-19 infections and harsh winter conditions.

Austria
Industrial Production
Apr. 2021: 1.6%
Austria’s goods-producing sector surged by 35.6% y/y in April, its largest growth on record.

France
Job Seekers
May. 2021: 3.49 mil
The number of French job seekers fell by 133,700 in May to a total of 3.49 million.

Mexico
Economic Activity Index
Apr. 2021: 22.3% y/y
As expected, Mexico’s economic activity reported a strong annual rebound in April, benefiting from the low comparison base.

United States
Personal Income
May. 2021: -2.0% m/m
Nominal personal income declined 2% in May, less severe than expected.

United States
PCE Deflator
May. 2021: 0.4% m/m
U.S. inflation has accelerated noticeably but the Federal Reserve is still in the camp that it will be transitory because of the temporary factors that are behind the increases.

United States
Real Personal Spending
May. 2021: -0.4% m/m
Real spending fell in May, but the sting of the decline was muted by upward revisions to growth in prior months, and spending on net changed little over April and May as few stimulus checks were distributed.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
June 23: 93.7
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index took a healthy step up this week, climbing 1.2 points from 92.5 to 93.7.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jun. 2021: 85.5
U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded in June, reversing nearly half of May’s large drop, according to the University of Michigan’s final report.

United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
June 20: 2.35%
Inflation expectations held flat for the second week in a row.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
June 18: 336.0
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index fell from 339 to 336 in the week ended June 18.