Economy.com Daily Update: June 24, 2021

Today's Economy

The infrastructure deal could lead to some minor adjustments to the baseline forecast.

The excess liquidity in the economy is pushing up demand.

The July baseline will likely include less in infrastructure outlays, but not a large reduction.

The Bank of England decided against hiking its policy rate.

Commentary

The continuing semiconductor chip shortage could stretch into early 2022.

By our estimate, the drop-dead date for raising the debt ceiling is October 18.

With Asia's pickup, the world will likely see its 3 billionth vaccination this week.

Consumers are more likely to use excess savings to pay for oil price increases.

Today's Economic Indicators

Netherlands
GDP
2021Q1: -0.1% y/y
The contraction in GDP in the first quarter was revised down from 0.5% to 0.8%, but on a year-ago basis, GDP held steady at -0.1%.

Spain
GDP
2021Q1: -0.4% q/q
Spain's GDP contracted by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2021 as a result of the third wave of COVID-19 infections and harsh winter conditions.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Jun. 2021: 0.1%
As anticipated, the Bank of England voted unanimously to keep its main refinancing rate at 0.1%.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
May. 2021: 1.1% m/m
Wholesale trade inventories jumped 1.1% in May following an upwardly revised 1% increase in April (previously 0.8%).

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
May. 2021: -$88.1 bil
Trade could be a larger drag on second-quarter U.S.

United States
Jobless Claims
June 19: 411,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits barely budged as they remained north of 400,000 for the second consecutive week.

United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
May. 2021: 2.3% m/m
U.S. durable goods orders were up 2.3% in May, a touch lighter than our forecast for a 2.9% gain.

United States
GDP
2021Q1: 6.4%, q/q, SAAR
U.S.

United States
Industry GDP
2021Q1: 6.3 ppt, SAAR
Private industries were responsible for all of the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021.

Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Apr. 2021: 1.1%
Payroll employment as measured by the SEPH pushed higher in April to 166,900, marking a 1% month-to-month increase.

Mexico
Employment Situation
May. 2021: 4.0% Unemployment
Mexico’s unemployment rate declined in May as the economy keeps recovering.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
June 18: -0.93
Financial stress increased for the second straight week behind a selloff in U.S. equity markets.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
June 18: 55 bil cubic feet
Working gas in underground storage rose by 55 billion cubic feet during the week ended June 18, building on last week's 16-bcf increase.

United States
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Jun. 2021: 27
Manufacturing activity in the 10th District remains firmly in expansion mode.

Uruguay
GDP
2021Q1: -2.8% y/y
Uruguay’s GDP contracted by a softer 2.8% y/y in the first quarter of 2021 following a 2.9% slump in the last quarter of 2020.

Mexico
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2021: 4.25%%
The Bank of Mexico finally responded to the persistently high inflation by announcing the first rate hike of the year in June.

Argentina
Retail Sales Index
Apr. 2021: 3,178.5% y/y
The index that tracks nominal sales at Buenos Aires’ largest shopping centers jumped 3,179% y/y in April after rising 141% the previous month.

Argentina
Employment Situation
2021Q1: 10.2% Unemployment
According to Indec’s labor market survey, the national urban unemployment rate averaged 10.2% in the first quarter, compared with 10.4% a year earlier (figures are not seasonally adjusted).