Economy.com Daily Update: June 24, 2019

Today's Economy

Exports will languish this year, but strong consumers should help pick up the slack.

The trade balance has swung into surplus for May, but exports are still struggling.

The country accounted for 72.5% of the emerging markets’ outstanding nonfinancial corporate debt.

With the central bank almost committed to a rate cut, the end of the trade issues would boost equity markets.

Commentary

The U.S. economy has deviated little from the playbook since the 2017 tax law.

We expect a deal between the U.S. and China at the G-20 meeting, or at a minimum a truce.

Expect a broad-based pickup in price pressures across the euro currency area.

China's manufacturing sentiment should stabilise at a low level.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
May. 2019: -0.05
The pace of U.S. economic activity moved in the right direction in May.

Mexico
Economic Activity Index
Apr. 2019: -1.4%
Economic activity in Mexico, affected by the timing of Easter, reported an annual contraction in April.

World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
June 21: 9.5
Global business sentiment has been hit hard by the trade war between the U.S. and its trading partners.

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
May. 2019: US$0.21 bil
Indonesia's foreign trade balance has been relatively volatile of late and May data continued that trend.

United States
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Jun. 2019: -12.1
Current expectations about Texas factory activity weakened further in June, with survey respondents concerned about both their own companies and the wider business climate.

South Korea
Consumer Sentiment Index
Jun. 2019: