Economy.com Daily Update: June 10, 2022

Today's Economy

Consumers are not happy with higher prices, particularly at the pump.

The housing market is cooling but demand remains robust, while supply-chain constraints are a headwind.

Markets are pricing in three more 50-basis point hikes as inflation remains red hot.

Prime Minister Johnson survived a no-confidence vote, but 40% of his party want him out.

Commentary

Higher vehicle, energy and rental prices continue to pressure some population groups more than others.

Argentina and Brazil see slow-but-steady growth amid regional inflation struggles.

Natural gas security is of particular concern given an inability to readily diversify away from Russia in the short term.

The euro zone will see some rebound in industrial production.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Industrial Production
Apr. 2022: 4.6% y/y
Malaysia’s industrial production was up 4.6% y/y in April, easing from March’s 5.1% increase.

Netherlands
Industrial Production
Apr. 2022: 5.2% m/m
Industrial production excluding construction jumped 5.2% month over month in April after contracting for two consecutive months and stalling in March.

Canada
RPS House Price Index
May. 2022: 16.5% y/y
The RPS Metropolitan Composite index was up 16.5% from a year earlier in May after April's 17.5% increase.

Denmark
Consumer Price Index
May. 2022: 7.4% y/y
Danish CPI increased by 7.4% year over year, up from 6.7% in April.

Norway
Consumer Price Index
May. 2022: 5.7% y/y
Norwegian CPI increased by 0.2% m/m in May from April, and 5.7% from May of last year.

Finland
Industrial Production
Apr. 2022: 3.4% m/m
Finland’s industrial production recovered by 3.4% month over month, cancelling out a downwardly revised 1.4% contraction in March.

Spain
Consumer Price Index
May. 2022: 8.7% y/y

Austria
Industrial Production
Apr. 2022: 1.6% m/m
Total Austrian industrial production expanded further above April's all-time highs, gaining 1.6% month on month.

Austria
Retail Sales
Apr. 2022: 4.1% y/y
Austrian retail sales broke a two-month falling streak in April, posting a 4.1% year-over-year growth rate.

China
Monetary Aggregates
May. 2022: 11.1% y/y
China’s M2 broad money supply grew 11.1% y/y in May, accelerating from 10.5% in April.

Italy
Industrial Production
Apr. 2022: 1.6% m/m
Italy’s industrial production grew by 1.6% month over month in April, as all the main sectors except capital goods were up in monthly terms.

Russian Federation
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2022: 9.5%
At its June meeting, the Central Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points to 9.5%, just two weeks after an ad-hoc 300-basis point cut.

Mexico
Industrial Production
Apr. 2022: 2.7% y/y
Mexico’s industrial production advanced in April, showing signs of recovery after a prolonged weakness.

Brazil
Retail Sales Index
Apr. 2022: 4.5% y/y
Brazil retail sales posted another annual gain in April as the economy keeps showing signs of recovery.

India
Industrial Production
Apr. 2022: 7.1% y/y
India's industrial production index surged by 7.1% y/y in April, accelerating on a 2.2% rise in March.

United States
Consumer Price Index
May. 2022: 1.0% m/m
The May U.S. consumer price index won’t sit well with the Federal Reserve, but it doesn’t mean policymakers need to panic and hike rates by more than 50 basis points next week.

Canada
Industrial Capacity Utilization
2022Q1: 82.0%
Total industrial capacity utilization stayed put in the first quarter of 2022, remaining a consistent 82% for three of the last four quarters.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
May. 2022: 5.1%
The labor market's strength endures.

Belgium
Industrial Production
Apr. 2022: -3.4% y/y
Belgian industrial production shrank 0.6% month over month in April on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Russian Federation
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2022:
The Central Bank of Russia temporarily suspended monthly publication of merchandise trade of the Russian Federation on 11 April.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
June 08: 93.3
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal index ticked up this week, rising from a revised 92.8 to 93.3.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jun. 2022: 50.2
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell far more than expected in June, dropping below the prior record low set in the depths of the 1980 recession.

United States
Quarterly Services Survey
2022Q1:
Service industries in the U.S. posted strong revenue gains in the first quarter of 2022.

World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
May. 2022: 1.4% m/m
The Moody’s Analytics estimate of worldwide consumer price inflation rose by 1.4% m/m in May, pushing the y/y rate to 19.4% from 18.4% in April.

Peru
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2022: 5.5%
The June meeting of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru closed with a commitment to push rates further into restrictive territory.

United States
Treasury Budget
May. 2022: -$66.2 bil
The end of federal pandemic aid, along with a strong tax-filing season in April, will allow the U.S.