Economy.com Daily Update: June 10, 2021

Today's Economy

The acceleration in U.S. consumer prices is not the new norm.

These economies are benefiting from U.S. demand for exports and an increase in remittances.

Manufacturing slumped in France, while it jumped in Italy.

Outbreaks like the one in Guangzhou still pose risks to economic recoveries.

Commentary

Florida joins some smaller U.S. states in returning to prior heights, but many remain far off.

For a representative portfolio of Dutch mortgages, we test the potential impact of additional stress due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic will weigh heavily on emerging market economies, and the gap with booming developed market economies will widen.

May’s weaker-than-consensus job number was an improvement on April but reflected several frictions in the economy.

Today's Economic Indicators

Denmark
Consumer Price Index
May. 2021: 1.7%
Prices in Denmark continued their upward trend in May.

Finland
Industrial Production
Apr. 2021: 1.8%
Finland’s industrial production increased by 1.8% m/m in April after a downwardly revised 2.2% decrease in March.

Norway
Consumer Price Index
May. 2021: 2.7
Norway’s inflation rate slowed to 2.7% y/y in May from 3% in April.

Sweden
Consumer Price Index
May. 2021: 1.8%
Sweden’s headline inflation rate eased to 1.8% y/y in May from 2.2% in April; the CPI with fixed interest rates (CPIF), the measure tracked by the Riksbank, ticked down to 2.1% from 2.5%.

Italy
Industrial Production
Apr. 2021: 1.8%
Italian industrial production gained 1.8% m/m in April, according to preliminary estimates, and surged in year-ago terms thanks to base effects.

France
Industrial Production
Apr. 2021: -0.1%
French industrial production dipped by 0.1% m/m in April, after March's upwardly revised 1% gain.

China
Monetary Aggregates
May. 2021: 8.3% y/y
Credit growth in China will continue to support the robust rebound, as the M2 money supply increased by 8.3% y/y, up from 8.1% in the prior month.

Ireland
Consumer Price Index
May. 2021: 1.7%
Ireland's CPI was up 1.7% y/y in May, thanks in part to the lower base of May 2020.

Euro Zone
Monetary Policy
Jun. 2021: 0%
The European Central Bank’s interest rates and asset purchase programs remained unchanged at its June meeting.

United States
Jobless Claims
June 05: 376,000
Labor supply issues, not layoffs, are weighing heavily on the U.S. labor market. Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits fell from 385,000 to 376,000 in the week ended June 5, better than our forecast for a small increase.

United States
Consumer Price Index
May. 2021: 0.6% m/m
The acceleration in U.S. consumer prices isn’t the new norm.

Netherlands
Industrial Production
Apr. 2021: 12.8% y/y
The full level effects of the pandemic are kicking in, causing year-ago growth in industrial production in the Netherlands to reach 12.8% in May.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
June 04: -1.01
The St.

United States
Quarterly Services Survey
2021Q1:
The recovery in services is gathering momentum as progress is being made on the vaccination front, and as states loosen COVID-19 restrictions.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
June 04: 98 bil cubic feet
The increase in gas stocks last week nearly matched analyst predictions, suggesting that this report should have little effect on gas prices.

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Apr. 2021: 1.9%
Global semiconductor sales totaled $41.9 billion in April.

United States
Moody's Analytics Used Vehicle Price Indexes
May. 2021: 58%
Demand for used vehicles eased off a bit last month.

United States
Financial Accounts - Households
2021Q1: $136.92 tril
Household wealth rose again, to another record high, in the first quarter.

United States
Financial Accounts - Nonfinancial Corporate
2021Q1: $26.18 tril
Nonfinancial corporate business wealth increased by $454 billion to $26.18 trillion during the first quarter.

United States
Treasury Budget
May. 2021: -$132.0 bil
A belated deadline for federal income tax filing combined with fading pandemic relief lowered May’s Treasury budget deficit relative to the past two years.