| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Initial Claims Tick Higher; 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Moves Even Lower Don't read too much into claims while concerns about the Delta variant are weighing on yields. Capital Market View: Forecast Tweak Has High-Yield Spreads Tighter Spreads will remain tight in the second half of this year, but will widen in 2022. New Fiscal Assumptions, Modest Tweaks to July U.S. Baseline There was a small downward revision to our GDP forecast for this year, the first in a while. LatAm Daily Briefing: Demand-Push Inflation Excess liquidity in Brazil, Chile and Mexico is driving demand. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Australia Risk Matrix Update: COVID-19 Keeps Threatening Adding to the economy’s vulnerability to local infection outbreaks is the sluggish domestic vaccination program. South Bears Brunt of New Virus Cases U.S. regional and local infection rates and economic data depend much on the uptake of vaccinations. China Risk Matrix Update: Stabilizing Growth, Rising Uncertainty Accelerated vaccine rollouts have boosted consumer confidence but not enough to bring life back to precrisis normal. This Week in the COVID-19 Recovery The economic recovery must overcome several challenges, but they all are manageable. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Switzerland
Unemployment rate
Jun. 2021: 3.1%
Swiss unemployment continued its downward trend in June, declining to 3.1% from 3.2% in May. Malaysia
Monetary policy
Jul. 2021: 1.75%
Bank Negara Malaysia kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in July's meeting, in line with our forecast. Ireland
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: 1.6%
Ireland's CPI was up 1.6% y/y in June, thanks in part to the lower base from a year earlier. Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: 5.88% y/y
Mexico’s inflation remained high in June with no signs of receding. Chile
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: 3.80% y/y
Annual inflation in Chile rose above the 3% target in June as prices faced pressures. Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: 8.35% y/y
Annual inflation continued to climb high in June despite the monetary reaction implemented by the central bank. United States
Jobless Claims
July 03: 373,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly ticked higher, but there is no cause for concern; new filings can be volatile this time of year because of seasonal adjustment issues around the Fourth of July holiday. Netherlands
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: 2.0% y/y
Inflation in the Netherlands moderated to 2% in June. United States
CreditForecast.com Household Credit Report
Jun. 2021: 5.52% y/y
The consumer credit market witnessed explosive growth in June, increasing $145 billion to $14.5 trillion outstanding. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
July 02: -1.02
Financial stress edged lower last week. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
July 02: 16 bil cubic feet
The increase in gas stocks last week was below analyst predictions, suggesting that this report should contribute slightly to higher prices. United States
Oil Inventories
July 02: 445.5 mil barrels
Another larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories will give extra momentum to already-high oil prices. United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
May. 2021: $35.3 bil
Consumer credit expanded by $35.3 billion in May, nearly doubling consensus expectations for an $18.4 billion increase. China
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021:
China
Producer Price Index
Jun. 2021:
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