Economy.com Daily Update: July 7, 2021

Today's Economy

Fed still on track to taper early next year and it's betting on inflation being transitory.

The Treasury has drawn down its General Account faster than expected.

The stagnant performance places doubt on how the economy might recover from a contraction suffered in the first quarter.

While China wants to put the brakes on runaway producer prices, markets may do the job.

Commentary

Accelerated vaccine rollouts have boosted consumer confidence but not enough to bring life back to precrisis normal.

The economic recovery must overcome several challenges, but they all are manageable.

The 'Phuket sandbox' could become a model for other vacation hotspots in Asia.

June's jobs report impressed...mostly.

Today's Economic Indicators

Denmark
Industrial Production
May. 2021: 1.0% m/m
Industrial production provided another sign that Denmark's economy is turning the corner.

Norway
Industrial Production
May. 2021: -0.3%
Norway’s industrial production declined by 0.3% m/m in May, adding to April’s 0.1% contraction.

Sweden
Industrial Production
May. 2021: -0.3%
Sweden’s total industrial production decreased by 0.3% in May after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in April.

Italy
Retail Sales
May. 2021: 0.2% m/m
Italy’s retail sales ticked up by 0.2% m/m in May thanks to stronger nonfood spending and surged in year-ago terms.

Germany
Industrial Production
May. 2021: -0.3%
Industrial production contracted slightly in May, dropping by 0.3% m/m.

Ireland
Industrial Production
May. 2021: -4.6%
Irish industrial production contracted by 4.6% in May from the previous month.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
July 02: -1.8%
Mortgage applications contracted again, dropping 1.8% in the week of July 2.

Brazil
Retail Sales Index
May. 2021: 16.0% y/y
Household consumption advanced further in May as the economy continues to reabsorb available workers.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2021: US$1,095.3 mil
Chile's trade surplus narrowed in June on the back of lower copper prices and rising imports.

Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
Jun. 2021: 71.9
The Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index posted a resounding gain in June, coming in at 71.9, indicating that the nation is forging ahead.

United States
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
May. 2021: 6.0% openings rate
The May JOLTS continued to show high demand for workers as employers tried to fill many openings after COVID-19-related restrictions were lifted. However, after surging during the first four months of the year, the number of job openings just about leveled off in May.

United States
Financial Obligations Ratio
2021Q1: 12.88%
Household financial burdens plunged to new record lows in the first quarter as incomes surged on the back of two rounds of stimulus checks.

Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: 6.5% y/y
Russian headline CPI accelerated further in June, reaching 6.5% y/y, its strongest since 2017, after a 6% reading in May.

United States
FOMC Minutes
Jun. 2021:
The minutes from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee didn’t jolt the bond market, as they show policymakers don’t believe the threshold for tapering their monthly asset purchases has been met and the acceleration in inflation was seen as transitory.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
May. 2021: 30.2% y/y
Argentina's industrial output jumped 30.2% y/y in May not seasonally adjusted, after 55.6% in the previous month.

United States
California Manufacturing Survey
2021Q3: 70.4
The California Purchasing Managers' Composite Index is on the rise, indicating expectations for stronger improvement in manufacturing activity in the months ahead.

United States
Semiconductor Billings
May. 2021: 4.2%
Global semiconductor sales reached a record high of $43.6 billion in May.

China
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2021: