Economy.com Daily Update: July 7, 2017

Today's Economy

Political risks threaten Brazil’s incipient recovery.

The first day of the G-20 meeting taps into the controversial topic of international trade.

The central bank is in the clear to raise rates due to the improving economy.

Wage growth is decelerating, which suggests that slack remains.

Commentary

We expect industrial production figures for the euro zone to be outstanding.

China’s June data dump will show the economy ended the second quarter on a respectable note.

PMIs for key economies were upbeat in June, but growth has cooled heading into Q3.

Industry keeps disappointing in Colombia and Uruguay, while mildly rebounding in Mexico.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Foreign Trade
May. 2017: MYR5.5 bil
Malaysia's monthly trade surplus narrowed to MYR 5.5 billion in May.

France
Industrial Production
May. 2017: 1.9%
France's industrial production surprised strongly on the upside in May, rising by a hefty 1.9% m/m, well above the consensus of a 0.5% rise, following a 0.6% decrease in April.

France
Foreign Trade
May. 2017: -€4.9 bil
France’s trade deficit narrowed to €4.9 billion in May after a deficit of €5.5 billion in April (prior to revision).

United States
California Manufacturing Survey
2017Q3:

Spain
Industrial Production
May. 2017: 1.2%
Spain’s industrial production improved in May, coming in at 3% y/y.

Taiwan
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2017: US$5,825.1 mil
Taiwan’s monthly trade surplus grew substantially in June to $5.83 billion, up from $3.46 billion in May.

Germany
Industrial Production
May. 2017: 1.2%
German industrial production rose in May, gaining 1.2% m/m from April, when it increased by a revised 0.7%.

Germany
Manufacturing Turnover and Orders Received
May. 2017: 1.0%
German manufacturing advanced by 1% m/m in May following a revised 2.2% decrease in April.

Italy
Retail Sales
May. 2017: -0.1%
Italy’s retail sales shed 0.1% on a monthly basis in May, following a revised 0.4% drop in the previous month.

United Kingdom
Industrial Production
May. 2017: -0.1%
U.K. industrial production figures for May were again grim.

United Kingdom
Foreign Trade
May. 2017: -£11.9 bil
The U.K. trade deficit for goods strongly disappointed in May, widening to £11.9 billion from a downwardly revised £10.6 billion in April.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2017: 3.0%
Brazil’s inflation is on the decline as price increases moderate in an economy underperforming.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2017: 1.7%
Annual inflation continues to fall below the 3% target, declining to 1.7% in June from 2.55% in the previous month.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Jun. 2017: 6.5%
Another strong performance from the labor market paves the way for a Bank of Canada rate hike next week.

United States
Employment Situation
Jun. 2017: 222,000
The labor market expansion endures.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2017: 6.3%
Annual inflation keeps escalating as price realignments continue after the energy price shock at the beginning of the year.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2017: US$58.2 mil
Chile’s trade surplus tumbled to $58 million in June from $723 million in May.

United States
ECRI Future Inflation Gauge
Jun. 2017: 111.6 (U.S.)
Recent weakness in the ECRI Future Inflation Gauge suggests that near-term inflation is unlikely to accelerate.

Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
Jun. 2017: 61.6
The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 61.6 in June from 53.8 in May, marking the third over-60 reading in the past four months.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
June 30: 144.0
The U.S. expansion will continue over the coming quarters, however, gains will moderate as the expansion matures.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
June 30: 72 bil cubic feet
Natural gas inventories rose by more than industry analysts were expecting, which will put downward pressure on gas prices.