Today's Economy

The uncertain aftermath of the presidential election has thrown the nation into turmoil.

The FOMC did not change the fed funds rate, as expected, but opened the door for a September cut.

The economy grew for a second quarter in a row, but the composition of growth suggests a strong recovery remains elusive.

Asia's Economy Unwrapped podcast: Interest rate cuts are likely by the end of this year.

Commentary

The Federal Reserve is setting the stage to loosen monetary policy in the coming months.

Student loan dynamics have shifted since the pandemic and risks have declined across the board.

Inflation rates across Asia are converging and becoming more sensitive to global shocks.

Abrupt shifts in American trade policy will be a key concern.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Jul. 2024: 28.4%
World recession risks declined to 28.4% with data through May, indicating a low risk of global recession.

Thailand
Industrial Production
Jun. 2024: -1.7% y/y
Thailand’s industrial production fell 1.7% year on year in June, slightly more than the 1.2% decline we expected.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2024: US$0.2 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade surplus shrank to $218.1 million in June from $656.2 million in May.

Germany
Unemployment
Jul. 2024: 6%
Germany’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 6% in July.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
GDP
2024Q2: 3.3% y/y
Hong Kong has had a solid first half of the year.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2024: 2.6% y/y
The euro zone’s headline HICP inflation rate sped up to 2.6% year over year in July from 2.5% in June.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
July 26: -3.9%
Mortgage activity fell again in the week ended July 26.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Jun. 2024: 6.9%
Brazil's unemployment rate decreased in June, continuing the trend but at a diminished pace, achieving a new record low.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
May. 2024: 0.2% m/m
Real gross domestic product rose 0.2% in May after growing 0.3% in the prior month.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2024Q2: 0.9% q/q
The employment cost index rose 0.9% in the second quarter of 2024, as compensation growth slowed more than expected after an outsize first-quarter gain.

Chile
Employment
Jun. 2024: 8.3%
Chile's labor market improved in June amid the incipient economic recovery.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Jun. 2024: -4.79% y/y
Chile’s manufacturing production remained weak in June, contracting even more than in the previous month.

United States
Pending Home Sales
Jun. 2024: 4.8% m/m
The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index rebounded in June, adding 4.8% from the month prior, and besting expectations.

United States
Oil Inventories
July 26: 433.0 mil barrels
Oil inventories declined for the fifth week in a row, and the larger-than-expected draw will likely put some upward pressure on oil prices.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Jun. 2024: 3.9% y/y
High interest rates, elevated consumer debt, and a still-sluggish labor market are all weighing on Chilean consumers, and the June retail sales report gives further testament to their struggles.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2024: 10.75%
Colombia’s central bank board cut the reference interest rate by 50 basis points at Wednesday’s regular meeting, thus continuing with the monetary relaxation cycle that started in December.

United States
FOMC Monetary Policy
Jul. 2024: 5.25% to 5.50%
It's been a year since the Federal Open Market Committee last changed its main policy rate—a streak likely to end when the rate-setting group reconvenes in September.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Jun. 2024: 2.5% m/m

Brazil
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2024:

Chile
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2024:

Australia
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2024:

South Korea
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2024: