Economy.com Daily Update: July 31, 2020

Today's Economy

The additional $600 in weekly unemployment insurance benefits expire Friday.

The Bank Of Canada's ballooning balance sheet underscores the depth of the economic crisis.

Preliminary figures look slightly better than expected, but risks abound.

Amid the COVID-19 crisis, GDP plunged at its worse rate on record for the euro area.

Commentary

Euro zone retail sales point to a V-shape recovery, but the overall picture isn't as optimistic.

For the economies, the worst is over but the road to recovery is steep.

The pain from the pandemic is evident in the U.S. job market.

The second-quarter plunge in GDP came despite a strong recovery in May—a recovery that has quickly weakened.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Jul. 2020: 29.5
Japan’s consumer confidence index recovered further in July, increasing to 29.5, up 1.1 points from June.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Jun. 2020: 9.0%
France's household consumption of goods recovered further, gaining 9% m/m in June after a 37.4% spike in May.

Germany
Retail Sales
Jun. 2020: -1.6%
Real, calendar and seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 1.6% m/m in June, following May’s downwardly revised 12.7% jump.

Spain
GDP
2020Q2: -18.5%
Spain's GDP crashed in the second quarter because of COVID-19-induced lockdowns that ended in late June.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2020: US$2.3 bil
Thailand's foreign trade balance shrank dramatically in June, to $2.3 billion from $3.2 billion in May.

Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2020Q2: -0.7%
In the second quarter of 2020, Taiwan's economy recorded its deepest contraction in over a decade.

Italy
Retail Sales
Jun. 2020: 12.1%
Italy’s retail sales posted another sharp rebound in June, rising by 12.1% m/m and almost completely offsetting the record drops in March and April.

Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2020Q2: -12.1%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone GDP slumped by 12.1% q/q in the second quarter and built on a 3.6% decline in the first, the worst result on record.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2020: 0.4%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation rose to 0.4% y/y in July from 0.3% in June.

France
GDP
2020Q2: -13.8%
Preliminary numbers showed that France’s GDP plunged by 13.8% q/q in the second quarter, the sharpest contraction on record, after a 5.9% decline in the second.

Chile
Employment
Jun. 2020: 12.2%
Chile's unemployment rate averaged 12.2% in the April-June rolling quarter, sharply up from 7.3% a year earlier.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Jun. 2020: 0.4%
Prices for products manufactured in Canada, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index, rose 0.4% in June, driven mainly by higher prices for energy and petroleum products.

Canada
Industry Output
May. 2020: 4.5%
Real GDP advanced 4.5% after two months of massive declines.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2020Q2: 0.5%
The COVID-19 crisis took a major toll on the labor market in the second quarter, but the impact to employment costs will be modest relative to the devastating job losses.

United States
Personal Income
Jun. 2020: -1.1%
Incomes fell in June as government support slipped further.

United States
PCE Deflator
Jun. 2020: 0.4%
Deflation pressure eased for the second month in a row, but inflation remains well below the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

United States
Personal Spending
Jun. 2020: 5.2%
Real consumer spending continued its rebound in June and has now reversed nearly two-thirds of its declines in March and April.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Jun. 2020: -8.26%
Chile’s industry reported a significant annual contraction in June as the economy continued to be affected by the epidemic.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Jun. 2020: -15.9%
Chile’s retail and wholesale sales index dropped 15.9% in June, slightly better than our forecast, as the effects of COVID-19 continued to pound the economy.

United States
Risk of Recession
May. 2020:

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jul. 2020: 72.5
Consumer sentiment remains at a recessionary level, and increases in COVID-19 infections are likely to keep it there.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2020: 2.25%
Colombia’s central bank board cut the reference interest rate by 25 basis points after its regular meeting on Friday.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Jun. 2020: 1%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index increased in June as livestock prices continued rising from April's 10-year low.