| Today's Economy
Europe Daily Briefing: What a Wednesday Euro zone growth halved in the second quarter, while inflation has cooled further. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: Lots to Digest China's manufacturing PMI, Australia's CPI, and GDP data from Taiwan and Hong Kong were highlights. Successful Rate Cuts Are Short and Shallow Four of the seven rate-cut episodes occurred amid a mature business cycle upturn and managed to stave off a recession. Economic Roundup: Fed Transitory Claims Ringing True Acceleration in inflation could dampen markets' hopes for Fed to embark on an easing cycle. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
A Decade of Divergence and Buybacks for U.S. Equities Contrary to popular belief, neither domestic retail nor institutional investors are navigating the U.S. stock market to new heights. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 26, 2019 We will start tracking third quarter GDP growth with July vehicle sales. ECB Set to Dive Deeper Into Uncharted Territory of Negative Interest Rates The goal is to stimulate the flagging euro zone economy. U.S. Chartbook: The Shallow Slowdown and Impending Insurance Cut The economy has been slowing for a year and the Fed wants to ensure that it doesn’t weaken further. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Japan
Consumer Confidence
Jul. 2019: 37.8
Japan’s consumer confidence index on a seasonally adjusted basis fell to 37.8 in July from 38.7 in June. Germany
Retail Sales
Jun. 2019: 3.5%
German retail sales increased 3.5% in monthly terms in June, more than offsetting a revised decline of 1.7% in May. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2019: US$4.4 bil
Thailand's export sector isn't as healthy as the foreign trade balance suggests. Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2019Q2: 2.4%
Taiwan's economic growth surprised on the upside in the second quarter, at 2.4% y/y, according to the advance estimate, up from 1.7% y/y in the previous quarter. Germany
Unemployment
Jul. 2019: 5.0%
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 5% in July. Italy
Unemployment
Jun. 2019: 9.7%
June preliminary data show that Italy’s employment situation continues to improve despite sluggish economic growth. Hong Kong
GDP
2019Q2: -0.3%
Hong Kong's economy contracted 0.3% q/q in the June quarter, according to advance estimates, lower than expected and down from a 1.3% rise in the previous quarter. Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2019Q2: 0.2%
The first estimate of second-quarter euro zone GDP growth came in at 0.2% q/q, down from 0.4% in the first stanza and in line with our expectations. Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2019: 1.1%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation cooled to 1.1% y/y in July from 1.3% in June, in line with the consensus. Euro Zone
Unemployment
Jun. 2019: 7.5%
In line with expectations, the euro zone’s jobless rate fell to 7.5% in June, its lowest since July 2008, from an upwardly revised 7.6% in May. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
July 26: -1.4%
The top-line index moved down 1.4% the week of July 26 with a decline in purchases while refinancings remained stable. Brazil
Employment Situation
Jun. 2019: 12.0%
Unemployment continues to adjust down as the economy advances. United States
ADP National Employment Report
Jul. 2019: 156,000
The labor market is healthy, but growth is slowing. Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Jun. 2019: -1.4%
Industrial product prices fell for the second consecutive month because of lower prices for energy and petroleum products. Canada
Industry Output
May. 2019: 0.2%
Canadian GDP notched its third consecutive gain in May. United States
Employment Cost Index
2019Q2: 0.6%
Tightening in the U.S. labor market still is not putting much pressure on employment costs. Chile
Employment
Jun. 2019: 7.1%
The national unemployment rate averaged 7.1% in the April-June rolling quarter, down from 7.2% a year earlier. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Jun. 2019: -5.35%
National manufacturers reported an annual contraction in June, affected by the high level of production a year earlier. United States
Risk of Recession
Jun. 2019: 19%
The odds that the U.S. will be in recession in the next six months increased from 16% in May to 19% in June. United States
Oil Inventories
July 26: 436.5 mil barrels
A much larger than expected decline in oil inventories will put upward pressure on oil prices. South Korea
Foreign Trade
Jul. 2019:
United States
FOMC Monetary Policy
Aug. 2019: 2.00 to 2.25%
The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 2% to 2.25%. United States
Agricultural Prices
Jun. 2019: 1%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index rose 1% in June as an increase in the crop production index more than compensated for a drop in the livestock production index. Brazil
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2019:
South Korea
Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2019:
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