| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: U.S. Core Inflation Hot, but Not as Hot as Feared The core PCE deflator rose 0.4% in June, leaving it up 3.5% on a year-ago basis. Capital Market View: Labor Supply Putting Upward Pressure on Wages Though wage growth is strong, it's likely it will not set a wage-price spiral into motion. Europe Daily Briefing: GDP Outperforms Expectations Strong second quarters in Italy and Spain boosted euro zone growth. Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Fed Tapering Clarity Is Coming The Fed will likely announce its plans in September. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Latin America Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 30, 2021 Chile should see a solid recovery this year; Brazil faces a severe water shortage. Europe Weekly Highlights and Preview, 30 July, 2021 The euro zone’s GDP grew more than expected in the second quarter; there was divergence among countries. Virus Surge and Sinking Economy Vex Thailand We have downwardly revised fourth-quarter GDP due to tourists being unlikely to return until next year. Asia-Pacific Weekly Highlights and Preview, 30 July, 2021 Australia's central bank will likely reverse its decision to taper bond purchases. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Netherlands
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: 6.6% y/y
Retail sales in the Netherlands were up 6.6% y/y in June, building on a downwardly revised 7.3% gain in May. Denmark
Unemployment rate
Jun. 2021: 3.8%
Denmark's labor market continues to heal. France
Household Consumption Survey
Jun. 2021: 0.3% m/m
France’s household consumption of goods increased by just 0.3% m/m in June, underperforming expectations. Spain
Retail Sales
Jun. 2021: 0.2% m/m
Spain’s retail sales increased by 0.2% m/m in seasonally adjusted terms in June. Italy
Unemployment
Jun. 2021: 9.7%
Italy’s economy added 166,000 jobs in June, building on May’s growth, while unemployment and inactivity dropped in monthly terms. Taiwan (China)
GDP
2021Q2: 7.5% y/y
Taiwan's wave of COVID-19 hampered economic growth in the second quarter. Thailand
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2021: US$3.9 bil
Thailand’s trade position improved in June, as the foreign trade surplus increased to $3.9 billion, up from $3.4 billion in May. Hong Kong SAR (China)
GDP
2021Q2: 7.5% y/y
Hong Kong's recovery continued into the second quarter, with real GDP expanding by 7.5% y/y, according to advance estimates, following the 8% expansion in the prior quarter. Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2021Q2: 2.0% q/q
The preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP in the euro zone beat expectations, growing by 2% q/q following the first quarter’s 0.3% decline. Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Jul. 2021: 2.2% y/y
According to preliminary estimates, headline inflation in the euro zone kicked up again in July to 2.2% y/y after slumping to 1.9% in June. Euro Zone
Unemployment
Jun. 2021: 7.7%
The euro zone’s unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% in June from an upwardly revised 8% in May. Brazil
Employment Situation
May. 2021: 14.6%
As anticipated, Brazil’s unemployment reported a mild decrease in May as the economy advanced further. Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Jun. 2021: 0.0% m/m
Producer-price inflation took a breather in June. Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
May. 2021: -0.3% m/m
Monthly GDP data showed that the Canadian economy took another step back in May. United States
Employment Cost Index
2021Q2: 0.7% q/q
The labor market recovery maintained a strong pace in the second quarter, though the pressure on employment costs cooled slightly despite labor supply issues. United States
Personal Income
Jun. 2021: 0.1% m/m
Nominal person income inched up 0.1% in June, bucking our expectation of a 0.8% contraction. United States
PCE Deflator
Jun. 2021: 0.5% m/m
U.S. inflation has accelerated, but the Federal Reserve is still in the camp that it will be transitory; therefore, the monetary policy implications are minimal. United States
Real Personal Spending
Jun. 2021: 0.5% m/m
Real spending grew at a healthy clip in June, nearly reversing its May decline, as plunging vehicle sales, rising prices, and fading stimulus limited growth. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Jun. 2021: 14.57% y/y
Chile’s industry reported strong annual growth again in June as the comparison base of last year amplified the rebound. Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Jun. 2021: 40.3% y/y
Retail sales in Chile pushed to a new high in June after logging a record gain in the prior month. Chile
Employment
Jun. 2021: 9.5%
Chile's national unemployment rate averaged 9.5% in the April-June rolling quarter, down from 12.2% a year earlier. World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Jul. 2021:
United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
July 28: 91.6
The CNN Business/Moody’s Analytics Back-to-Normal Index declined this week, moving backward from 92 to 91.6. United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jul. 2021: 81.2
U.S. consumer sentiment fell in July as inflation expectations rose, according to the University of Michigan’s final report. Belgium
Unemployment
Jun. 2021: 6.2%
Belgium’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell slightly in June to 6.2% from May’s unrevised 6.5% figure. Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2021: 1.75%
Colombia’s central bank left the reference interest rate unchanged at 1.75% after July’s regular meeting. United States
Agricultural Prices
Jun. 2021: 0.9% m/m
The Agricultural Prices Received Index rose to 107.3 in June, which is the highest reading since May 2015. China
Manufacturing PMI
Jul. 2021:
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