| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Producer Prices Hold Flat in June A 0.3% rise in PPI for final demand goods was offset by a decline in PPI for final demand services. LatAm Daily Briefing: Trump-Lula Tiff and Tariffs The tariffs will have little bearing on the forecast for the two countries. Europe Daily Briefing: U.K. Inflation Heats Up Inflation still on the rise in the British Isles. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: U.S. Tariffs on Indonesia Will Jump to 19% From 10% The Trump administration reminded Indonesia last week that it was facing a hike to 32%. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Outlook: Going Off Script Our baseline forecast holds that the U.S. economy will avoid recession, but it will be close. France Outlook: Tackling Uncertainty The French economy is facing a difficult environment with little sign of improvement ahead. Japan Risk Matrix: On Thin Ice A higher, 25% U.S. import tariff indicates little headway in Japan-U.S. trade talks. U.S. Chartbook: Quiet on Main Street Small businesses' economic outlook remains stable and historically typical, despite uncertainty. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United States
Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker
Jun. 2025: 8.76%
The Moody’s Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate rose 47 basis points to 8.76% in June. United Kingdom
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2025: 3.6% y/y
Consumer price inflation was 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May. Indonesia
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2025: 5.25%
Bank Indonesia lowered its benchmark BI rate 25 basis points to 5.25% at its July meeting, matching our expectations. Italy
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2025: 1.7% y/y
In June, Italy's headline consumer price inflation ticked up to 1.7% year on year from 1.6% previously, slightly above our forecast that it would remain unchanged. Euro Zone
External Trade
May. 2025: €16.2 bil
The euro zone’s not seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased to €16.2 billion in May from €12.7 billion in the same month a year earlier. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
July 11: -10.0%
Mortgage applications dropped 10% last week as rates edged higher, marking the largest weekly decline in activity since mid-April. Canada
Housing Starts
Jun. 2025: 284 ths
The total monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts for all areas in Canada remained relatively flat in June at 283,734 units, a marginal 0.4% increase from May. World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Jun. 2025: 3.8% y/y
The Moody’s Analytics measure of global CPI inflation inched back up to 3.8% y/y in June from 3.7% in May. United States
Producer Price Index
Jun. 2025: 0.0% m/m
Wholesale prices were flat in June, undershooting expectations of a slight increase. United States
Industrial Production
Jun. 2025: 0.3% m/m
U.S. industrial production expanded solidly in June. United States
Oil Inventories
July 11: 422.2 mil barrels
A decline in oil inventories last week will likely push prices higher. United States
Beige Book
Jul. 2025:
U.S. economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July, according to business anecdotes collected from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. Japan
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2025:
Singapore
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2025:
Australia
Employment Situation
Jun. 2025:
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