Economy.com Daily Update: July 15, 2020

Today's Economy

The economy is growing again, but the road to recovery is nothing less than harrowing.

The COVID-19 pandemic is generating imbalanced cost pressures.

Production and sales in the world’s seventh-largest market are running at less than half their pre-pandemic rate.

The Bank of England may need to inject further stimulus before year's end.

Commentary

Moody’s Analytics expects the next relief package to total $1.4 trillion.

Recent economic data are at odds with the spike in COVID-19 cases.

The key data include consumer prices, industrial production, retail sales, and housing starts and permits.

Regional job markets face a harrowing road to recovery.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2020Q1: -11.7%

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2020: US$1.27 bil
Indonesia’s exports expanded for the first time in three months, growing 2.3% y/y in June after May’s 29.1% contraction.

United Kingdom
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2020: 0.6%
The U.K.’s CPI inflation rose to 0.6% y/y in June from 0.5% in May, beating the consensus for a decline to 0.4%.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2020: -0.2%
Italy's headline consumer price inflation slid to 0.2% y/y in June, in line with preliminary estimates.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
July 10: 5.1%
Mortgage applications rose by 5.1% over the week of July 10, after a 2.2% increase in the previous week.

Canada
Housing Starts
Jun. 2020: 212 ths
Canadian housing starts clocked in at a reasonably healthy 211,681 annualized units in June, an increase of 8.3% from 195,453 units in May.

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
May. 2020: 10.7%
Canadian manufacturing turned in a strong month in May, rebounding from the COVID-19-induced nosedive in April and March.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
May. 2020: -47.2%
New-vehicle sales fell by 47.2% in year-ago terms in May.

World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Jun. 2020: 0.6%
Global consumer prices rose by 4.1% y/y in June after an upwardly revised 3.8% increase in May.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Jul. 2020: 17.2
More factories in New York are improving than declining for the first time since February, according to the July Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Jun. 2020: 1.4%
Energy drove most of the gain in U.S. import prices in June.

Peru
Unemployment
Jun. 2020: 16.3%
The unemployment rate in the Lima metro area, a proxy for job market conditions at the national level, rose 3 percentage points in the three months ended in June to 16.3%.

United States
Industrial Production
Jun. 2020: 5.4%
U.S. industrial production is rising after historic declines during the apex of the recession.

Canada
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2020: 0.25%
For the fifth consecutive month the Bank of Canada has maintained its overnight rate at 0.25%, the effective lower bound.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
July 10: 221.9
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index decreased from 222.6 to 221.9 in the week ended July 10.

United States
Oil Inventories
July 10: 531.7 mil barrels
A surprise decline in crude oil inventories will be a plus for prices.

Colombia
Industrial Production
May. 2020: -26.2%
Colombia's manufacturing output sank 26.2% y/y in May after plummeting 35.8% in the previous month.

India
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2020: US$0.8 bil
India registered its largest trade surplus on record in June.

United States
Beige Book
Jul. 2020:
U.S. economic activity broadly improved from mid-May to early July, according to anecdotes summarized in the Beige Book.

Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2020: 42.8%
The Argentine statistics office’s national consumer price index increased 2.2% in June, down from 2.7% a year earlier.

Chile
Monetary Policy
Jul. 2020:

New Zealand
Consumer Price Index
2020Q2:

Australia
Employment Situation
Jun. 2020:

China
Fixed Asset Investment
Jun. 2020:

China
GDP
2020Q2:

China
Industrial Production
Jun. 2020:

China
Retail Sales
Jun. 2020: