Economy.com Daily Update: July 11, 2025

Today's Economy

The U.S. economic calendar will get busy next week, starting with the June CPI report.

The Trump administration has sent several letters to trade partners setting new tariff rates.

Back-to-back monthly declines in GDP point to a weak second quarter.

Hedge funds now play a central role in Canada's government bond market.

Commentary

We look for CPI to have increased 0.3% in June, or 2.6% on a year-ago basis.

Though June's headline employment figure was solid, underlying details show labor market weakness.

Euro zone industrial output is set to tick higher in May, but uncertainty remains high.

Output drops in France and Italy, while Spain and Germany gain.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Industrial Production
May. 2025: 0.3% y/y
Malaysia’s industrial production rose 0.3% y/y in May after climbing 2.7% previously.

United Kingdom
Monthly GDP
May. 2025: -0.1% m/m
The 0.1% month-on-month fall in U.K.

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2025: 2.0% y/y
Inflation edged down to 2.0% y/y in June, a slight decrease from its April and May print of 2.1%.

France
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2025: 1.0% y/y
France’s CPI inflation rate rose to 1% year over year in June from 0.7% in May.

Mexico
Industrial Production
May. 2025: -0.8% y/y
Mexico’s industry remained weak in May, as it reported another annual contraction, although at a slower rate.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Jun. 2025: 6.9%
Overcoming global headwinds, the Canadian labor market mustered a solid gain in June, the first sizable increase since January.

Canada
Building Permits
May. 2025: 12% m/m
The total value of Canadian building permits increased 12%, primarily driven by a significant rise in Ontario's institutional component.

United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Jun. 2025:

Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2025: 9.4% y/y
Russia’s annual inflation rate decelerated to 9.4% y/y in June from 9.9% in May, firmly in line with our forecast.

Canada
RPS House Price Index
Jun. 2025: 1.6% y/y
The Canadian housing market in June continued its deceleration, with the national house price index showing a modest 0.5% increase month over month, following a similar 0.6% rise in May.

Uruguay
Industrial Production
May. 2025: 3.1% y/y
Industrial production in Uruguay maintained its positive trend after recording a 3.1% year-on-year increase in May, following impressive growth of 7.2% in April and a 16.2% rise in March.

United States
Treasury Budget
Jun. 2025: $27.0 bil
The U.S. federal government recorded a budget surplus of $27 billion in June, an improvement from the $71 billion deficit recorded in June 2024.