| Today's Economy
LatAm Daily Briefing: Down and Out in Lima The worst economic crisis in more than three decades has come down hard on Peru’s capital. Final Thoughts Ahead of June U.S. Employment We look for a 4.25 million increase in nonfarm employment and a 12.9% unemployment rate. Europe Daily Briefing: German Retail Raises Hopes for Recovery A V-shape recovery is unlikely as long as uncertainty keeps consumers and firms in caution mode. Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: A Softer June for South Korea's Exports Japan's Tankan survey showed businesses weren't optimistic in the June quarter. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Global Loss of Production Capacity Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic It will take several years of persistent investment efforts to put global output back to potential. U.S. Commodities Outlook: A Long Road to Normal The primary risk to the oil market forecast is the path of the COVID-19 outbreak. U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 29, 2020 We expect an increase in vehicle sales from 12.2 million annualized units in May to 13 million in June. U.S. Chartbook: At a Crossroads With green shoots emerging and the pandemic intensifying, the U.S. is nearing a critical juncture. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Japan
Consumer Confidence
Jun. 2020: 28.4
Japan’s consumer confidence index continued to climb in June, increasing to 28.4, up 4.4 points from May. Germany
Retail Sales
May. 2020: 13.9%
Real, calendar and seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding motor vehicles jumped by 13.9% m/m in May after a downwardly revised 6.5% decline in April. Germany
Unemployment
Jun. 2020: 6.4%
The German unemployment rate rose to 6.4% in June from 6.3% in May. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
June 26: -1.8%
Mortgage applications decreased by 1.8% over the week of June 26, after an 8.7% decline in the previous week. United States
Challenger Report
Jun. 2020: 170,219
Job cuts in June decreased to 170,219, less than half of May’s total of 397,016 but still multiples above the year-ago figure of 41,977. United States
ADP National Employment Report
Jun. 2020: 2,369,000
Historic labor market turbulence is ongoing as a partial recovery from COVID-19 is underway. Chile
Monthly Economic Activity Indicator
May. 2020: -15.3%
Chile's economic activity continued to fall severely in May as the virus pandemic forced a more prolonged paralysis. Peru
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2020: 1.6%
The Lima CPI fell 0.27% from May to June, the largest decline for the month of June since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. United States
Construction Spending (C30)
May. 2020: -2.1%
U.S. construction spending in May fell well short of the consensus expectation of a 1% increase. United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Jun. 2020: 52.6
The ISM manufacturing index jumped in June, but there will likely be a disconnect with the hard data. United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
June 26: 222.4
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index increased from 222 to 222.4 in the week ended June 26. United States
Oil Inventories
June 26: 533.5 mil barrels
An unexpected decline in crude oil inventories will be a plus for oil prices. Singapore
GDP - Advanced
2020Q2:
United States
FOMC Minutes
Jun. 2020:
The minutes from the June 9-10 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show the central bank recognized that explicit forward guidance is needed. United States
Semiconductor Billings
May. 2020:
South Korea
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2020:
Japan
Tankan Survey
2020Q2: -34
Japanese manufacturers’ business confidence sharply deteriorated in June as the diffusion index for large manufacturers fell by 26 points from March to -34, a multiyear low. Australia
Foreign Trade
May. 2020:
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