Economy.com Daily Update: July 1, 2016

Today's Economy

Negative rates elswhere, expectations for QE, and fear push long-term rates to record lows.

Policymakers acted to support the peso.

Equities plunged, but periphery bond markets have held up well.

Argentina’s participation in the Pacific Alliance will boost trade and investment in the region.

Commentary

June employment should ease fears that the job market has weakened.

Uncertainty after the U.K. exit vote will likely dominate again next week.

Further monetary easing is likely as Japan’s inflation expectations fall.

Inflation up in Colombia and Uruguay and down in Brazil and Chile.

Today's Economic Indicators

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Jun. 2016: US$3.97 bil
Brazil’s trade balance fell in June as exports contracted while imports rose.

Malaysia
Foreign Trade
May. 2016: MYR3.2bil
Malaysian export growth will struggle for the rest of the year as the global economy underperforms.

United States
Semiconductor Billings
May. 2016:

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Jun. 2016: 41.8
Japan's consumer confidence remains pessimistic, as low wages and falling inflation expectations crimp spending.

Italy
Employment Situation
May. 2016: 11.5%
Italy's unemployment rate dipped to 11.5% in May from a revised 11.6% in the previous month.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
May. 2016: 10.1%
The euro zone’s unemployment rate was 10.1% in May, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and down from 11% a year earlier.

Brazil
Industrial Production
May. 2016: -8.9%
Brazil’s industry contracted significantly in May as the domestic market suffers the effects of tighter policies.

Peru
Consumer Price Index
Jun. 2016: 3.34%
Consumer price inflation in the City of Lima eased in June as a more favorable exchange rate and falling food prices slowed overall price growth.

United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Jun. 2016: 53.2
U.S. manufacturing is showing signs of improvement, but a new test lies ahead as the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union will weigh a little on global growth and has already nudged the U.S. dollar higher.

United States
Construction Spending (C30)
May. 2016: -0.8%
Construction spending fell 0.8% in May, adding to the sharp drop-off in April and falling below consensus expectations for a 0.6% gain.

United States
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
June 24: 136.4
Consumer and investor sentiment was little improved in the week ended June 24, resulting in no change for the U.S. weekly leading index, which remained at 136.4.

Russian Federation
GDP
2016Q1: -1.2%
Rosstat's first estimate of first quarter GDP in Russia is for an annual decline of 1.2%.

Russian Federation
Reserve Fund
Jul. 2016: RUB2.46 tril
Russia's reserve fund stood at RUB2.46 trillion as of the beginning of July, marginally lower than in the previous month.