| Today's Economy
LatAm Daily Briefing: Surprising Recovery in Brazil The country was expected to be one of the most adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic Roundup: Trade Will Ding Q4 U.S. GDP The real trade deficit is the widest it's been since the inception of the data in 1994. Trade May Drag on U.S. Economy More Than Anticipated Fiscal stimulus and the shift in consumer spending could cause the deficit to remain wide and cut into GDP. Final Thoughts Ahead of December U.S. Employment We look for nonfarm employment to have declined by 25,000 and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.8%. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Senegal Leads Africa's Recovery Growth impressed in the third quarter, setting a high benchmark for other countries in the region. Pandemic's Impact on U.S. State Populations Broad patterns still hold, but economic effects carried the most weight in midyear estimates. U.S. Chartbook: A Dim Ending to a Dark Year The economy entered the new year still struggling under the weight of the pandemic. U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Vaccinations Are Behind Schedule Until the vaccines are widely distributed, the economy will struggle. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United States
California Manufacturing Survey
2021Q1:
Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
Dec. 2020: 90.4
The euro zone business and consumer sentiment index recovered to 90.4 in December after falling to 87.6 in November. Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2020: -0.3%
Preliminary estimates report that the euro zone's harmonized index of consumer prices fell by 0.3% y/y in December, the same as in November. Euro Zone
Retail Sales
Nov. 2020: -6.1%
Retail sales excluding motor vehicles in the euro zone slumped by 6.1% m/m in November, erasing October’s 1.4% gain. Chile
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2020: US$1.423 bil
Chile’s foreign trade balance remained in surplus during December, coming in at $1.4 billion for the month, in line with our above-consensus forecast. United States
Challenger Report
Dec. 2020: 77,030
Job cut announcements ticked higher in December, rising from about 65,000 in November to just over 77,000 in December. Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2020: 3.15%
Annual inflation in Mexico ended the year close to the 3% target, after a persistent rebound since mid-year. Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Nov. 2020: C$ -3.3 bil
Canada's merchandise trade exports rose by 0.5% in November. United States
Jobless Claims
January 02: 787,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell but remain extremely high. United States
International Trade (FT900)
Nov. 2020: -$68.1 bil
U.S. net exports are going to be a drag on fourth-quarter GDP growth, particularly because of the noticeable shift in consumer spending away from services and toward goods. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
January 01: -0.70
The St. United States
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
Dec. 2020: 57.2
The survey-based data have been holding up given the surge in COVID-19 cases and tighter restrictions but they don't justify any changes to our near-term forecast, as survey and hard data can send conflicting messages. Canada
Purchasing Managers' Index
Dec. 2020: 46.7
The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index fell noticeably from 52.7 in November to 46.7 in December. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
January 01: -130 bil cubic feet
The draw in natural gas inventories was only slightly below analyst predictions, indicating that this report will have a minimal effect on prices. Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Nov. 2020: 4.5%
Industrial output increased 4.5% y/y in November (NSA) after contracting 3.1% in the previous month. United States
Semiconductor Billings
Nov. 2020: 1.0%
Global sales of semiconductors increased for the fifth consecutive month in November, totaling $39.4 billion. China
Producer Price Index
Dec. 2020:
China
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2020:
China
Monetary Aggregates
Dec. 2020:
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