Economy.com Daily Update: January 6, 2022

Today's Economy

Rising truck traffic points to a modest gain.

We look for nonfarm employment to have jumped by 580,000.

Excessive domestic demand kicks the economy into high gear.

Spreads widen while the holidays impacted corporate bond issuance.

Commentary

Under our baseline forecast, we expect Chinese officials to work through property market troubles and avoid a hard landing.

Strides in harder-hit U.S. regions are less pronounced, but reasons for hope remain.

The economic costs are mounting, and our assumption that each passing wave of COVID-19 will be less costly could be optimistic.

Despite it all, the U.S. economy’s ability to overcome the pandemic has been admirable.

Today's Economic Indicators

Taiwan (China)
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2021: 2.6% y/y
Taiwan’s headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.6% over the year in December, about in line with our expectations as food prices stabilise.

Belgium
Retail Sales
Nov. 2021: -1.3% m/m
Belgian retail sales decreased by 1.3% month to month in November, the first decline in three months.

United States
Challenger Report
Dec. 2021: 19,052
Job cut announcements rose to 19,052 in December, a 28% increase from November, though still very low by historical standards.

Brazil
Industrial Production
Nov. 2021: -6.9% y/y
The national industry in Brazil reported an annual contraction in November as activities remained affected by global supply disruptions and COVID-19 infections. Hence, the industrial production index reported an annual decrease of 6.9% in November, after a fall of 6.2% in the previous month, according to seasonally adjusted figures; from the previous month production decreased 0.2%.

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Nov. 2021: C$ 3.1 bil
Canada’s trade surplus widened yet again in November.

United States
Jobless Claims
January 01: 207,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits unexpectedly edged higher in the week ended January 1.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Nov. 2021: -$80.2 bil
The U.S. nominal trade deficit widened noticeably in November, and this won’t have enormous implications for fourth-quarter GDP.

United States
State and Local Government Tax Revenue
2021Q3: -1.6% y/y
State tax collections were down 1.6% in the third quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier, when collections were juiced by pandemic-related factors.

United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Nov. 2021: 1.6% m/m
U.S. factory orders increased 1.6% in November, and there was a modest upward revision to October as orders are now shown to have risen 1.2% (previously 1%).

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
December 31: -0.92
U.S. financial market conditions improved dramatically last week with the St.

United States
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
Dec. 2021: 62.0
The U.S. nonmanufacturing sector expanded in December for the 19th month in a row, but the breadth of growth was narrower.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
December 31: -31 bil cubic feet
Last week’s draw in natural gas stocks was small for this time of year and below analyst predictions, suggesting that this report will be a negative for gas prices.

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Nov. 2021: 10.1% y/y
Industrial output increased 10.1% year on year in November NSA, after 4.4% in the previous month.

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Nov. 2021: 1.8%
Global semiconductor sales continue to rise at a rapid pace.

Japan
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2021:

China
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2021: