Economy.com Daily Update: January 4, 2019

Today's Economy

The Fed is going to be patient and flexible, which cuts our subjective odds of a June move.

The partial U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of some source data on economic growth.

December employment was strong but supports the Fed's doves rather than hawks.

Newfoundland and Labrador looks to expand oil and mining exploration to boost economic growth.

Commentary

Getting a handle on China’s economy is not straightforward, but it is necessary.

The U.K. construction sector was probably further hit by Brexit uncertainty.

Relief for China's export sector unlikely in December.

Inflation adjusted down in Brazil and Chile but rose in Mexico.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Unemployment
Dec. 2018: 5%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at the record-low 5% for the second consecutive month in December.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 1.6%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone inflation slowed to a below-consensus 1.6% in December, its lowest reading since April, from 1.9% in November.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Nov. 2018: 0.6%
Chile’s retail and wholesale sales index rose a paltry 0.6% in November in year-ago terms.

United States
Employment Situation
Dec. 2018: 312,000
The labor market delivered a huge surprise in December.

United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Dec. 2018: 17.6 mil, SAAR
We do not yet have official data from the BEA because of the government shutdown, but other sources suggest that new vehicle sales finished the year strong with 17.6 million SAAR units in December.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Nov. 2018: -0.8%
The industrial product index fell 0.8% in November, a sharp decline from October.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Dec. 2018: 5.6%
Employment increased marginally in the final month of 2018, but the flat result is encouraging given that the labor market retained its huge gain from November.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
December 28: -20 bil cubic feet
The drop in natural gas inventories was smaller than analysts were expecting, signaling weak demand growth.

United States
Oil Inventories
December 28: 441.4 mil barrels
Oil inventories remained little changed last week, contrasting with expectations of a 3.1-million barrel shortfall.

Uruguay
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 8.0%
Consumer prices in Uruguay rose 8% in December on a year-ago basis, a tick lower than the November print and roughly unchanged from the past three months.