Economy.com Daily Update: January 31, 2019

Today's Economy

December's strong U.S. jobs gain isn't sustainable.

The Fed pressed pause, but this tightening cycle could be over, or close to it.

While significant, the boost to the country's economy will fade this year.

Idiosyncratic events in the fourth quarter likely weighed on growth.

Commentary

Financial market conditions have tightened and coincided with a slowing in the economy.

Reliance on the U.S. and China makes the region vulnerable if trade tensions reignite.

We consider the fallout if current negotiations break down.

Global oil demand is expected to remain sturdy despite an economic slowdown in China.

Today's Economic Indicators

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2018: US$2.5 bil

Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2018Q4: 1.8%
Taiwan's economic growth continued on its downward trajectory as exports once again disappointed, despite a modest boost from government spending.

Germany
Retail Sales
Dec. 2018: -4.3%
German retail sales disappointed at the end of 2018, dropping by 4.3% m/m in December after rising by 1.6% in November.

Germany
Unemployment
Jan. 2019: 5.0%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at the record-low of 5% for the third consecutive month in January.

Italy
Unemployment
Dec. 2018: 10.3%
Italy’s unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percentage point to 10.3% in December.

Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2018Q4: 0.2%
The second half of 2018 was unimpressive for the euro zone economy.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Dec. 2018: 7.9%
The euro zone’s jobless rate in December remained at 7.9%, unchanged from November, when unemployment hit its lowest point since October 2008.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Dec. 2018: 11.6%
Brazil's unemployment rate reported no change at the end of last year as the economy advanced further.

Chile
Employment
Dec. 2018: 6.7%
The national unemployment rate averaged 6.7% in the October-December rolling quarter, up from 6.4% a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Dec. 2018: 0.81%
Chile’s industry reported a slight advance in December, showing more normal performance.

United States
Challenger Report
Jan. 2019: 52,988
The number of workers affected by job cuts increased in January to 52,988, up 20.7% from December and 18.7% from the a year earlier.

United States
Jobless Claims
January 26: 253,000
The partial federal government shutdown left its mark on the U.S. labor market.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2018Q4: 0.7%
Wage growth in the Employment Cost Index came in slightly weaker in the fourth quarter of 2018 but continues to reflect a trend of gradual acceleration.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Dec. 2018: -0.7%
The industrial product price index fell 0.7% in December, mainly because of lower prices for energy and petroleum products.

Canada
Industry Output
Nov. 2018: -0.1%
Canadian GDP took a small step back in November, dipping 0.1% after rising 0.3% in October.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
January 25: -0.92
The St.

United States
New-Home Sales
Nov. 2018: 657,000
New single-family home sales jumped up in November, increasing 16.9% on a monthly basis.

South Korea
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2019:

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
January 25: -173 bil cubic feet
The decline in natural gas inventories during the week ended January 25 was smaller than analysts' expectations, which will put downward pressure on gas prices.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jan. 2019: 4.25%
Colombia’s central bank board left the reference interest rate unchanged at Thursday's meeting.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Dec. 2018: 3.5%
The November prices received index increased 3.5% from October thanks to a rebound in the crop production index.

South Korea
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2019:

Japan
Employment Situation
Dec. 2018: