Economy.com Daily Update: January 29, 2021

Today's Economy

Spending is still on an unfavorable trajectory heading into this year but the stimulus should help.

Expiring mortgage deferrals spell trouble.

But emerging economies are suffering a fiscal toll.

The pandemic and lack of policy response aggravated the contraction in 2020.

Commentary

Chile ended 2020 in positive territory.

We expect Washington to approve what ultimately will be close to $1.9 trillion in additional fiscal support to the economy this year.

The euro zone unemployment rate likely inched up to 8.4% in December.

Autonomy could come with economic costs.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Jan. 2021: 29.6
Japan's consumer confidence index declined to 29.6 in January, down 2.2 points from the previous month, offsetting gains in consumer sentiment in the last quarter of 2020.

United States
Risk of Recession
Dec. 2020: 28%
The probability of the U.S. being in recession in the next six months increased from 24% in November to 28% in December.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2020: US$2.8 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade ended 2020 on a strong note, as the trade surplus improved to $2.8 billion in December from $1.9 billion in November.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Dec. 2020: 23.0%
French household consumption of goods surged in December, rebounding from its slump in November.

Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2020Q4: 4.9%
Taiwan's advance estimate for fourth-quarter real GDP rose by 4.9% on a year-on-year seasonally adjusted basis.

Spain
Retail Sales
Dec. 2020: 1.0%
Spain’s retail sales growth reversed trend and jumped by 1% m/m in December in seasonally adjusted terms, after a 0.5% drop in November.

Hong Kong
GDP
2020Q4: -3%
Hong Kong's economic recovery slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter, with GDP growing by just 0.2% q/q after a 2.7% increase in the prior quarter.

Germany
Unemployment
Jan. 2021: 6.0%
The German unemployment rate held steady at 6% in January.

Chile
Employment
Dec. 2020: 10.3%
The national unemployment rate averaged 10.3% in the October-December rolling quarter, down from a 2020 peak of 13.1% in May-July but sharply up from 7.1% a year earlier.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Dec. 2020: 0.4%
Chile’s manufacturing production advanced further in December, although total industry receded.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Dec. 2020: 7.4%
Chile’s retail and wholesale trade activity remained solid in December, rising 7.4% year on year.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Dec. 2020: 1.5%
Producer and raw materials prices mounted strong gains to close out 2020, contrasting with the weak finish on the consumer end.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Nov. 2020: 0.7%
Canadian economic growth picked up the pace in November.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2020Q4: 0.7%
The labor market rebound turned more sluggish in the fourth quarter, but the impact on employment costs has yet to materialize.

United States
Personal Income
Dec. 2020: 0.6%
The December report is the last one before the effects of the end-of-year $930 billion federal pandemic relief bill become fully visible.

United States
PCE Deflator
Dec. 2020: 0.4%
The increase in U.S. inflation in December will continue through the first half of this year but it won’t rattle the Fed, as transitory factors will be behind the acceleration.

United States
Personal Spending
Dec. 2020: -0.6%
Real consumer spending fell in December for the second straight month as increased infections drove more restrictions on activity and a greater reluctance on the part of consumers to go out and spend.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
January 27: 81.2
The Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index fell 0.5 point this week.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Jan. 2021: 79.0
U.S. consumer sentiment slipped 1.7 points in January after surprisingly rising 3.8 points in December.

United States
Pending Home Sales
Dec. 2020: 125.5
The NAR pending home sales index decreased 0.3% to 125.5 in December, registering its fourth straight month of declines but still up significantly from its pre-pandemic level.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Jan. 2021: 1.75%
Colombia’s central bank board left the reference interest rate unchanged at 1.75% after January’s regular meeting.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Dec. 2020: -1.8%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index fell 1.8% in December.