Economy.com Daily Update: January 17, 2023

Today's Economy

Wednesday will bring U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter into clearer view.

Confidence in the peso falls as inflation rises.

This was the first positive reading in nearly a year, but it still disappoints.

Inflation is clearly softening across the board.

Commentary

December’s CPI report confirmed an ongoing easing of inflation.

Wholesale price declines will continue into 2023 as new-vehicle production grows.

YCC seems destined to come to a messy end in Japan; it need not.

The labor market remains resilient but is slowly moderating.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 8.6% y/y
Germany’s year-on-year CPI inflation rate declined to 8.6% in December, from 10.0% in November.

United Kingdom
Unemployment
Nov. 2022: 3.7%
The U.K. unemployment rate increased by 0.2% to 3.7% in the three months leading up to November from 3.5% in the previous three-month period from June to August.

Italy
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 11.6% y/y
Final numbers confirm that Italian consumer price inflation cooled to 11.6% year over year in December, thanks to lower food and energy inflation.

Ireland
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 8.2% y/y
Ireland’s consumer price inflation rate decelerated to 8.2% y/y in December from 8.9% in November.

Canada
Housing Starts
Dec. 2022: 249 ths
Residential construction in Canada took a step back in December.

Canada
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2022: 6.3% y/y
A sharp drop in gasoline prices helped pull down top-line inflation but core measures of price appreciation remain sturdy.

Canada
International Transactions in Securities
Nov. 2022: C$12.8 bil
Canadian investors ended their months' long divestment from foreign equities in November while foreign investors maintained a fairly consistent pace of acquisitions in Canadian securities.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Jan. 2023: -32.9
January's Empire State Manufacturing Survey surprised to the downside with the general business conditions index registering one of its worst readings ever.

Peru
Unemployment
Dec. 2022: 7.1%
The job market in metropolitan Lima had a better showing in the October-to-December rolling period, but it is still far from full health.

World
Moody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
January 13: 3.3
Global business sentiment remains positive, but barely so, consistent with a global economy that is skirting a recession.

Colombia
Industrial Production
Nov. 2022: 4.5% y/y
Manufacturing output growth started to slow in late 2022 amid weakening domestic and external demand.

United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Dec. 2022: 44.0 weeks, NSA
New-vehicle affordability declined sharply in December.

Japan
Machinery Orders
Nov. 2022:

Japan
Monetary Policy
Jan. 2023:

Malaysia
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2022: