| Today's Economy
Rising Default Rate Likely Despite Powerful High-Yield Rally Only 4% of forecasters agree with market on likely course of fed policy. Economic Roundup: The North Star for Economists Shutdown has us flying a little blind but initial claims suggest the economy is chugging along. The Shutdown and January U.S. Employment How furloughed workers who are not working nor being paid are counted will be key. Europe Daily Briefing: Protests Hammer French Factory Growth The expected 1% q/q decline in Q4 creates favorable base effects for early 2019. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
The Shutdown and the Road to Recession The partial U.S. government closure is unlikely to stop the expansion, but there are potholes ahead. Saudi Arabia Outlook: The Slow, Steady Road to Reform Moving away from oil dependency is necessary, but it will take time and effort. Another Look at Direct and Spillover Costs of the Shutdown Neither U.S. policy uncertainty nor partisan conflict appear to pose a significant issue. Venezuela Outlook: Recession Enters a Sixth Year Hyperinflation shows no sign of abating. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Canada
RPS House Price Index
Dec. 2018: 1.1%
France
Industrial Production
Nov. 2018: -1.3%
In line with expectations, France's industrial production plunged by 1.3% m/m in November, fully reversing a diametrically opposed rise in October. Italy
Retail Sales
Nov. 2018: 0.7%
Italian retail sales moved higher in November, rising 0.7% m/m, following a 0.2% gain in October. United States
Jobless Claims
January 05: 216,000
This year is shaping up to be another good one for the U.S. labor market, as initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits remain low. Canada
New Housing Price Index
Nov. 2018: 0.0%
Canadian new-house price appreciation is at a standstill. Canada
Building Permits
Nov. 2018: 2.6%
The value of building permits increased in November, driven by strength in commercial construction intentions. Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
Dec. 2018: 4.3%
The Russian consumer price index rose 4.3% year over year in December, rising 0.5 percentage point above the prior reading and 0.3 percentage point above the central bank’s target rate of inflation. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
January 04: -0.67
Financial stress decreased in the week ended January 4, the first decline since November. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
January 04: -91 bil cubic feet
The decline in natural gas inventories was greater than analyst expectations, which will put some upward pressure on gas prices. China
Monetary Aggregates
Dec. 2018:
China
Foreign Trade
Dec. 2018:
Australia
Retail Sales
Nov. 2018:
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