Economy.com Daily Update: February 9, 2021

Today's Economy

We have some new fiscal assumptions, but it didn't lead to big changes to this year's forecast.

U.S. per-gallon costs last week exceeded their year-ago level for the first time in about 11 months.

Export orders from Asia helped offset depressed trade elsewhere.

Wholesale and retail trade fell by 5.9% in 2020, the worst on record.

Commentary

An unprecedented effort is underway.

The recovery stalled, but positive vaccination developments set the stage for growth to accelerate.

The daily rate of new infections in the U.S. has finally begun to abate.

More fiscal support is on the way.

Today's Economic Indicators

China
Monetary Aggregates
Jan. 2021: 9.4% y/y
Credit growth in China jumped in January, with aggregate social financing surging to CNY5.17 trillion ($802 billion), tripling the CNY1.72 trillion ($266 billion) logged in December.

Italy
Industrial Production
Dec. 2020: -0.2%
Italy's industrial production ticked down by 0.2% m/m in December, after falling by 1.4% in November amid new restrictions.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2021: 4.56%
Annual inflation continued to move upward and above the mark at the start of the year as the economic recovery advanced, although at a more moderate pace.

OECD
Composite Leading Indicators
Jan. 2021: 99.6
The January reading for the OECD composite leading indicator came in at 99.6 in amplitude-adjusted terms, compared with 99.5 in December.

United States
NFIB Small Business Survey
Jan. 2021: 95.0
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell from 95.9 in December to 95 in January, bringing the cumulative decline since October to 9.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2021: 3.54% y/y
Mexico’s inflation trended up again in January as the traditional realignment of prices took place.

United States
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Dec. 2020: 4.5% openings rate
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data confirm that the labor market recovery fizzled at the end of 2020.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
February 05: 406.6
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index fell from 411.8 to 406.6 in the week ended February 5.

Singapore
GDP - Advanced
2020Q4:

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Dec. 2020: -0.6%
Global semiconductor sales ended the year with a whimper, declining 0.6% from their November level. This marks the first month-to-month decline in chip set sales since June 2020.

China
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2021:

China
Producer Price Index
Jan. 2021: