Economy.com Daily Update: February 28, 2025

Today's Economy

Growth in the personal consumption expenditure deflator was in line with expectations.

Canada must tread lightly with retaliatory tariffs to avoid a deeper economic downturn.

France’s economy fell back in the last quarter of 2024, in line with preliminary estimates.

A widening trade deficit and a consumer pullback in January lowered our first-quarter estimate to 1.2%.

Commentary

We expect payroll gains to bounce back to 180,000 after a more subdued 143,000 job gain in January.

High house prices are not overcoming the lack of home sales.

We see the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by 25 basis points Thursday.

Hong Kong will undershoot official growth estimates of ‘between 2% to 3%’.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Feb. 2025: 15.6%
World recession risks rose ever so slightly to 15.6%, with data through December indicating a low risk of global recession.

Sweden
GDP
2024Q4: 0.8% q/q
Sweden’s GDP outperformed in the fourth quarter, ramping up by 0.8% q/q after an upwardly revised 0.6% expansion in the third quarter.

Thailand
Industrial Production
Jan. 2025: -0.9% y/y
Thai industrial production fell 0.9% year on year in January, better than our expectation for 2.4% drop.

Finland
GDP
2024Q4: -0.2% q/q
Final estimates showed Finland’s real GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter, bucking preliminary estimates of 0.1% growth and down from a 0.5% lift in the third quarter.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2025: -US$1.9 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade deficit widened to $1.9 billion in January from $11 million in November.

Germany
Retail Sales
Jan. 2025: 0.2% m/m
In January, German retail sales increased 0.2% from December in real terms and 0.1% in nominal terms after adjusting for calendar and seasonal effects, resulting in a 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year increase, respectively.

Germany
Unemployment
Feb. 2025: 6.2%
Germany’s labour market deteriorated in February, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.2% but the number of unemployed ticking up by 5,000, following January's faster 11,000 increase.

France
GDP
2024Q4: -0.1% q/q
Final estimates confirm that France’s economy fell back 0.1% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter after growing 0.4% in the third quarter.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Jan. 2025: 3.5% y/y
Chile’s industrial production moderated in January after a strong rebound in the previous month.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Jan. 2025: 5.6% y/y
Chilean consumers started the year on a strong foot, with sales continuing to make up for lost ground in the first half of last year.

India
GDP
2024Q4: 6.2% y/y
India’s real GDP for the December quarter grew 6.2% year over year, up from the previous quarter’s upwardly revised reading of 5.6%.

United States
Personal Income
Jan. 2025: 0.9% m/m
Nominal personal income surged 0.9% in January, far exceeding our and consensus expectations.

United States
PCE Deflator
Jan. 2025: 0.3% m/m
In line with expectations, the personal consumption expenditure deflator rose 0.3% in January.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Jan. 2025: -0.5% m/m
Real consumer spending started 2025 on a weak note, with goods spending particularly disappointing.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Jan. 2025: 0.7% m/m
According to the advance estimate, wholesale inventories rose by 0.7% in January, following a decrease in the prior month.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Jan. 2025: -$153.3 bil
The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $153.3 billion in January, up $31.2 billion from $122 billion in December.

Canada
GDP
2024Q4: 2.6% SAAR
GDP growth closed out 2024 on a strong note.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Dec. 2024: 0.2% m/m
Canada's real gross domestic product ended 2024 on a positive note.

Chile
Employment
Jan. 2025: 8.0%
The Chilean labor market improved in early 2025 as the expansion gained traction.

Belgium
GDP
2024Q4: 0.2% q/q
Final estimates showed that Belgium’s real GDP advanced by 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter following 0.3% q/q growth in the third stanza.

Portugal
GDP
2024Q4: 1.5%
Portuguese quarterly GDP growth surged to 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Jan. 2025: 2.1% m/m
The Agricultural Prices Received Index rose in January to 129.4, marking a 2.1% increase from December and a 16% rise compared with the same period last year.

China
Manufacturing PMI
Feb. 2025: