Today's Economy

We look for GDP to have risen 1.7%.

The U.S. goods trade deficit widened noticeably in December.

Sentiment soured in the euro zone and sank to new lows in the U.K.

Hong Kong’s GDP grew at the slowest pace since 2016.

Commentary

The proposal offers a promising framework from which to begin.

Weakening auto credit quality is relatively modest and expected and doesn't indicate a broader problem.

A tight labor market, dysfunction in Washington DC, and trade wars could slow the economy.

Nominal income is the only important driver not weakening.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker
Jan. 2019: 3.78%
The Moody’s CMBS Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate decreased 14 basis points to 3.78% in January.

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2019: 1.4%
Germany's annual national measure of inflation decelerated further in January to 1.4% y/y, from 1.6% in December, due to a softer increase in the prices of food and energy.

Hong Kong
GDP
2018Q4: -0.3%
Hong Kong's economy grew at its weakest pace since 2016 in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
Feb. 2019: 106.1
Euro zone business and consumer sentiment fell slightly in February, by 0.2 point, to 106.1.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Jan. 2019: 12.0%
Brazil’s unemployment rate increased in January, as usually happens because of seasonal factors.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
February 22: 5.3%
The week ending on February 22 witnessed another expansion in the mortgage market, with the top-line market index increasing 5.3%. Despite this, the four-week moving averages for purchases and refinances were down due to base effects from an exceptionally strong January.

Canada
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2019: 1.4%
Inflation decelerated sharply in January as the fourth-quarter fall in gasoline prices bled into the broader transportation category.

Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Dec. 2018: 1.8%
The Canadian labor market paused slightly in December.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Dec. 2018: 1.1%
U.S. stockpiles expanded at the end of 2018's fourth quarter.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Dec. 2018: -$79.5 bil
Preliminary data show the nominal goods deficit widened substantially in December, swelling to $79.5 billion.

Mexico
Employment Situation
Jan. 2019: 3.57% Unemployment
Unemployment in Mexico increased at the beginning of the year as more jobs were eliminated in both public and private sectors.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Jan. 2019: -US$4.810 bil
Mexico’s trade balance started the year in negative territory despite the reduction of imports.

United States
Pending Home Sales
Jan. 2019: 103.2
The pending home sales index increased 4.6% to 103.2 in January on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, partially reversing its recent string of losses and rising to its highest level since September.

United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Dec. 2018: 0.1%
Factory orders rose 0.1% in December, after two consecutive monthly declines.

United States
Oil Inventories
February 22: 445.9 mil barrels
A surprise drop in crude oil inventories will put upward pressure on oil prices.

France
Job Seekers
Jan. 2019: 3.41 mil
The number of job seekers in France decreased slightly to 3.41 million in January, after rising to 3.42 million in December.

Argentina
Economic Activity Indicator
Dec. 2018: -6.97%
Economic activity in Argentina continued its annual contraction at the end of last year, prolonging the recession.

Japan
Industrial Production
Jan. 2019:

Japan
Retail Sales
Jan. 2019:

South Korea
Retail Sales
Jan. 2019:

China
Manufacturing PMI
Feb. 2019:

South Korea
Monetary Policy
Feb. 2019: