Economy.com Daily Update: February 23, 2021

Today's Economy

Inflation won't spook the Fed any time soon.

There are already signs that the winter storms dented the economy, but the damage is temporary.

Mexico's government did not expand spending in 2020.

England is set to exit lockdown by 21 June.

Commentary

Declining COVID-19 infections set the stage for a spring rebound in the economy.

Some metro areas can expect an outsize dividend from increased labor mobility.

We are increasingly comfortable assuming that herd immunity will be reached by September.

Housing and retail started the year on high notes, but the labor market sang in a lower key.

Today's Economic Indicators

Sweden
Unemployment rate
Jan. 2021: 8.8%
Sweden’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came in at 8.8% in January as the number of unemployed individuals amounted to 477,000.

United Kingdom
Unemployment
Dec. 2020: 5.1%
The U.K. unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in the three months to December from 4.8% in the previous quarter.

Euro Zone
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2021: 0.9%
Preliminary estimates were confirmed, the euro zone harmonized index of consumer prices rose by 0.9% y/y in January, after declining by 0.3% for the past four months.

Austria
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2021: 0.8%
Austria’s CPI fell to 0.8% y/y in January, lower than the 1.2% recorded in December.

United States
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Survey
Feb. 2021: 7.5
Nonmanufacturing activity in the Philly Fed District ticked up in February.

Peru
GDP
2020Q4: -1.7% y/y
Peru's economy outpaced expectations in the fourth quarter, leaving the level of output just 1.7% lower on a year-ago basis.

United States
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes
Dec. 2020: 10.1% y/y
House price appreciation accelerated in December, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index.

United States
FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index
Dec. 2020: 11.4% y/y
The Federal Housing Finance Agency Purchase-Only House Price Index increased 11.4% on a year-ago basis and 1.1% on a monthly basis in December.

United States
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Feb. 2021: 91.3
U.S. consumer confidence increased in February and it should continue to rise over the next several months, supported by a better economy and fiscal stimulus.

United States
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
Feb. 2021: 14
Manufacturing activity in the Richmond Federal Reserve District is recovering, according to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity.

United States
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Feb. 2021: 2.6
Texas current service sector activity was essentially flat in February, with nonretail revenue rising marginally and retail slightly down.

Argentina
Retail Sales Index
Dec. 2020: -6.7% y/y
The index that tracks nominal sales at Buenos Aires’ largest shopping centers dropped 6.8% y/y in December after falling 26.1% in the previous month.