Economy.com Daily Update: February 14, 2025

Today's Economy

After an impressive ending to 2024, U.S. retail sales stumbled to start 2025.

European officials warned that concessions could embolden Russia and further destabilize the region.

The end of QT, but what comes next?

GDP growth in the Netherlands helps revise the euro zone aggregate upwards.

Commentary

A strong but cooling labor market will provide cover to the Fed’s more cautious approach.

CPI edges up in Argentina and Colombia.

Existing-home sales will continue to modestly improve but likely notched only a small gain in January.

British GDP growth came down to public spending; in the euro zone, industrial production numbers were grim.

Today's Economic Indicators

Spain
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2025: 2.9% y/y
Spain's CPI inflation rate rose to 2.9% year over year in January from 2.8% in December.

Netherlands
GDP
2024Q4: 0.4% q/q
Dutch real GDP expanded 0.4% quarter over quarter in the last three months of 2024, according to preliminary estimates.

Russian Federation
Monetary Policy
Feb. 2025: 21%
At its February meeting, the Central Bank of Russia kept its benchmark interest rate at 21%.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Dec. 2024:

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Dec. 2024: 0.3% m/m
In December, total manufacturing sales increased for the third month in a row, up 0.3% to $71.4 billion.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Dec. 2024: 5.2% y/y
New-vehicle sales declined in December for the third consecutive month.

Canada
Wholesale Trade
Dec. 2024: -0.8% m/m
Wholesale trade dipped for the second month in a row in December.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Jan. 2025: 0.3% m/m
Price inflation accelerated in January for both U.S. imports and exports.

United States
Retail Sales
Jan. 2025: -0.9%, m/m
Retail sales unexpectedly stumbled in January, and falling auto sales were only part of the story.

United States
Industrial Production
Jan. 2025: 0.5% m/m
In January, U.S. industrial production expanded 0.5%.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Dec. 2024: -0.2% m/m
Business inventories fell 0.2% in December, a larger decline than the 0.1% consensus forecast.

Colombia
Industrial Production
Dec. 2024: 1.9% y/y
Manufacturing output increased 1.9% year on year in December following a 0.7% decline in the previous month.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2024Q3: 2.9% q/q SAAR
Global GDP growth crept up in the third quarter of 2024, reaching the highest annualized growth in four quarters.

Russian Federation
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2025:

United States
Moody's Analytics Commercial Real Estate Price Index
2024Q4: 4.8% y/y
The Moody’s Analytics Equal Weighted Commercial Real Estate Price Index increased 4.8% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.