Economy.com Daily Update: February 1, 2022

Today's Economy

Although it is nothing that raises a red flag, yet.

Markets applaud the preliminary debt restructuring agreement.

Retail sales in Germany plunged 5.5% as pandemic measures take their toll.

The RBA announced an earlier end to its bond buying program.

Commentary

Infections remain near a pandemic high of more than 3 million per day, although there are early signs they may be peaking.

The strong growth is unlikely to repeat in 2022's first stanza.

Supply disruption, if it were to occur, would likely have wide geopolitical ramifications.

The Federal Reserve will have zero tolerance for any upside surprises to inflation this year.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
CoreLogic Home Price Index
Dec. 2021: 18.5% y/y
The CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 18.5% year over year in December, up from the 18.1% rate before revisions in November, and registered at its fastest pace ever recorded going back to 1976.

Germany
Retail Sales
Dec. 2021: -5.5% m/m
German retail sales plunged to close out 2021, with inflation-adjusted turnover dropping 5.5% m/m in December.

Switzerland
Retail Sales
Dec. 2021: -0.4% y/y
Swiss retail sales tumbled 2.1% m/m in December, canceling out the 1.3% rise in sales in November.

Germany
Unemployment
Jan. 2022: 5.1%
Germany’s unemployment rate dropped from 5.2% in December to 5.1% in January, drawing ever closer to the unemployment rate’s pre-pandemic low of 5%.

Italy
Unemployment
Dec. 2021: 9.0%
Italy’s employment situation was stable in December, as employment and inactivity held steady over the month while joblessness declined.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Dec. 2021: 7.0%
The euro zone’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined to 7% in December from a downwardly revised 7.1% in November, pushing it further below pre-pandemic levels to its lowest level.

Portugal
Industrial Production
Dec. 2021: 0.4%
Portuguese industrial production grew by 1.8% m/m in December, its strongest one-month increase since September.

Chile
Monthly Economic Activity Indicator
Dec. 2021: 10.1% y/y
Chile’s economic activity advanced further in December, posting a strong post-recession rebound for the year.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Nov. 2021: 0.6% m/m
Real GDP pushed forward for another month in November, rallying past pre-pandemic levels.

United States
Construction Spending (C30)
Dec. 2021: 0.2% m/m
The value of U.S. construction put-in-place rose 0.2% in December.

United States
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Dec. 2021: 6.8% openings rate
The labor market was tight at the end of the year with the number of job openings at an extraordinarily high 10.9 million, compared with 6.7 million a year earlier. The opening rate stood at 6.8%.

United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Jan. 2022: 57.6
U.S. manufacturing conditions continued to soften in January, but there isn’t an immediate cause for concern because the ISM manufacturing index remains comfortably above its neutral threshold of 50.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
January 28: 360.3 4-wk MA
The four-week moving average in our U.S.

United States
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Jan. 2022: 2.8
Texas service sector activity as measured by revenues slowed significantly in January, and the retail segment actually declined.

United States
Moody's Analytics Used Vehicle Price Indexes
Jan. 2022: 51.8%
The Moody’s Analytics Used-Vehicle Price Index increased again in January.

United States
CreditForecast.com Household Credit Report
Jan. 2022: 7.43% y/y
The consumer credit market expanded to start 2022, growing by $25 billion to just shy of $15.2 trillion in total outstanding debt.

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Jan. 2022: -US$176 mil
Brazil’s trade started the new year with a mild deficit caused by a solid advance in imports.

Peru
Consumer Price Index
Jan. 2022: 5.7% y/y
Inflation in the Lima metropolitan area cooled in January as food prices stabilized and prices for consumer-facing services rose less quickly.