Economy.com Daily Update: December 7, 2018

Today's Economy

The “gilet jaunes” protests are expected to have caused severe disruptions across the country.

The government unveils an investment tax break as it faces a widening fiscal deficit.

Asia's financial and economic performance will not be immune.

Fears of a recession in the near future may be overblown.

Commentary

What if Parliament rejects Teresa May’s Brexit deal?

China’s foreign trade data for November will be closely watched for the impact of the trade war.

Should economic activity continue to soften, the case for interest rate hikes will also fade.

Industry likely advanced in Colombia and Uruguay but decelerated in Mexico.

Today's Economic Indicators

France
Industrial Production
Oct. 2018: 1.2%
France's industrial production rose by 1.2% m/m in October following a 1.6% decline in September, well above our estimate of a 0.5% increase.

Italy
Retail Sales
Oct. 2018: 0.1%
Retail sales in Italy increased 0.1% m/m in October, rising from a 0.8% decline in September.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2018: 4.05%
Brazil’s inflation declined in November as prices for several items contracted.

Germany
Industrial Production
Oct. 2018: -0.5%
German industrial production retreated at the start of the last quarter of 2018, after increasing marginally in the previous month.

Euro Zone
GDP
2018Q3: 0.2%
Final numbers confirmed that euro zone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in the third quarter, from 0.4% in the second, matching the consensus.

Chile
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2018: 2.8%
Chile’s inflation is staying around the 3% target as the economy moderates.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2018: US$333.8 mil
Chile’s trade balance returned to surplus in November.

Canada
Labor Force Survey
Nov. 2018: 5.6%
Employment boomed in November, sending the unemployment rate tumbling to an all-time low.

United States
Employment Situation
Nov. 2018: 155,000
Payroll gains disappointed somewhat in November, coming in at 155,000 jobs, while October's outsize gain was revised down by 13,000 to 237,000. The cold weather weighed on construction, but this weakness was offset by strong retail payroll growth due to the early Thanksgiving. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2018: 4.72%
Mexico’s inflation continued to decline in November, benefiting from the comparison base.

United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Oct. 2018: 0.8%
Stockpiles started the fourth quarter with a bang.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Dec. 2018: 97.5
A strong labor market and lower gasoline prices offset the hit to U.S. consumer sentiment from the turbulence on Wall Street.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
November 30: -63 bil cubic feet
Natural gas inventories fell by 63 billion cubic feet during the week ended November 30, matching the consensus expectation.

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Oct. 2018: $25.4 bil
Headline consumer credit growth wowed in October.