Economy.com Daily Update: December 22, 2016

Today's Economy

The economy looks to have fared a little better in the second half.

Capital stock can't be reconfigured quickly, increasing the downside risks of tariffs.

Growth is now tracking 1.7% this quarter, thanks to the consumer.

Key is where equipment and intellectual property investment are headed.

Commentary

Only 36 of the nation’s 402 metro areas are in recession; that's fewer than in January.

Falling inflation will fuel stronger growth.

The Dutch expansion will thrive thanks to firm housing and exports.

We got some things right, some wrong.

Today's Economic Indicators

Italy
Industrial New Orders
Oct. 2016: 0.9%
Italy's new industrial orders increased 0.9% in October, partly offsetting the 6.8% fall in September.

Spain
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2016: -€1.8 bil
Spain’s monthly trade deficit widened to €1.8 billion in October from €1.7 billion in the same month last year, but improved from the €2.2 billion deficit recorded in the previous month.

Italy
Retail Sales
Oct. 2016: 1.2%
Italy’s retail sales jumped 1.2% m/m in October, reversing a revised 0.5% contraction in the previous month.

United States
GDP
2016Q3: 3.5%
U.S.

Canada
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2016: 1.2%
Canadian consumer price growth slowed in November as the year-over-year increase in the headline Consumer Price Index eased to 1.2% from its 1.5% pace in the previous month.

Canada
Retail Trade
Oct. 2016: 1.1%
Retail sales powered ahead for the third month in a row, jumping 1.1% in October to C$45 billion.

United States
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Nov. 2016: -0.27
The pace of U.S. economic growth fell slightly in November.

United States
Jobless Claims
December 17: 275,000
Initial claims can be volatile around the holidays, so the latest increase should be taken with a grain of salt.

United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Nov. 2016: -4.6%
New orders for durable manufactured goods fell 4.6%, a poorer showing than the consensus forecast for a 4% decrease.

Mexico
Economic Activity Index
Oct. 2016: 1.2%
The Mexican economy expanded more slowly in October in part because of a weak performance by manufacturing.

United States
FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index
Oct. 2016: 6.2%
House price appreciation is holding firm even as residential construction wavers.

United States
Personal Income
Nov. 2016: 0.0%
Personal income was largely unchanged in November, following a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in October, which undershot our forecast for a 0.2% gain.

United States
PCE Deflator
Nov. 2016: 0%
U.S. inflation cooled in November, but the cooling will have to prove persistent to justify the Federal Reserve backing off its plan to raise interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points in 2017.

United States
Personal Spending
Nov. 2016: 0.1%
Consumer spending growth remained modest in November, as consumers may be struggling to remain the primary driver of expansion.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
December 16: -1.105
The St.

United States
Conference Board Leading Indicators
Nov. 2016: 0%
The U.S. economy’s expansion will remain intact, but growth is not likely to accelerate in the near term.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
December 16: -209 bil cubic feet
A sizable drawdown in natural gas inventories was even larger than analysts expected, which will put upward pressure on prices.

United States
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
Dec. 2016: 11
After barely squeezing out a positive number in November, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey pulled a rabbit out of its hat to record an 11 in December.

Argentina
GDP
2016Q3: -3.8%
The Argentine economy contracted 3.8% y/y in the third quarter, after a 3.7% drop in the previous quarter.