Economy.com Daily Update: December 18, 2020

Today's Economy

There was no deal yet on either stimulus or funding; the latter is needed to avert a partial shutdown.

Vaccines are expected to be distributed by the end of Q3 next year, but risks are substantial.

In Europe, Brexit talks are extended again.

The manufacturing sector has been buoyed by external demand and lately demand for cars and other capital goods.

Commentary

A double-dip recession in the U.S. and China is the second highest risk for the region.

Mexican economic activity likely continued to advance.

The risk of no agreement has been removed.

Spain, the U.K. and Russia will report their Q3 GDP estimates.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2020: ¥80 tril.
The Bank of Japan has responded to the intensifying domestic conditions with a six-month extension of its emergency lending program, which is now set to end in September 2021.

United Kingdom
Retail Sales
Nov. 2020: -3.84%
U.K. retail sales fell 3.8% m/m in November after a 1.3% increase in October, ending a six-month streak of gains and reducing sales to only 2.6% above their February levels.

Russian Federation
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2020: 4.25%
As expected, the Central Bank of Russia maintained its key policy rate at its December meeting.

Canada
Retail Trade
Oct. 2020: 0.4%
Canadian retail sales continued to move forward in October, but progress is slowing.

United States
Current Account
2020Q3: -$178.5 bil
The U.S. current account deficit widened less than anticipated in the third quarter as trade and income flows rebounded following COVID-19’s severe disruption to activity in the second quarter.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
December 16: 82.0
The pandemic recovery remains in a holding pattern.

Uruguay
GDP
2020Q3: -5.9%
Uruguay’s economy rebounded in the third quarter following the easing of restrictions implemented in the previous quarter.

United States
Regional and State Employment
Nov. 2020:
State and regional employment for November provides more evidence of a slowing labor market recovery as the recent surge in new COVID-19 weighs on economic growth.

United States
Conference Board Leading Indicators
Nov. 2020: 0.6%
Leading economic indicators for November packed on another increase despite signs elsewhere in the economy that the recovery is slowing.

Russian Federation
Retail Sales
Nov. 2020: -3.1%
Russian retail moved in the wrong direction in November.

Russian Federation
Unemployment
Nov. 2020: 6.1%
Russia's unemployment rate came in at 6.1% in November.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2020: 1.75%
Colombia’s central bank board left the reference interest rate unchanged at 1.75% after December’s regular meeting.