Economy.com Daily Update: December 15, 2022

Today's Economy

Industrial production and regional Federal Reserve surveys point to near-term weakness.

Bottlenecks have meaningfully diminished as a source of inflation.

While good economic news eased the recessionary fears of some, it dashed markets' hopes that the Federal Reserve would ease interest rate hikes.

The central bank proceeds steadily with monetary restriction.

Commentary

The attacks come ahead of Russia's planned major offensive in the new year.

The December CPI will likely be on the soft side again.

There is little room for deviations from script.

Growth will be modest, but it will not fall under the weight of losses in wealth, slowing job growth, and low confidence because of healthy real income growth.

Today's Economic Indicators

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2022: US$5.2 bil
Indonesia's trade surplus slipped to $5.2 billion in November from $5.7 billion in October.

Netherlands
Unemployment
Nov. 2022: 3.6%
Dutch unemployment lost 10 basis points in November, falling to 3.6%.

Philippines
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2022: 5.50%
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its overnight reverse repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% at its final meeting of the year.

Finland
Retail Sales
Oct. 2022: -0.7% m/m
Finland's seasonally adjusted real retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, decreased by 0.7% m/m in October, cancelling out the downwardly revised 0.7% increase in September.

France
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2022: 6.2% y/y
France’s headline inflation rate in November posted 6.2% year-on-year growth, identical to the previous month.

Switzerland
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2022: 1.0
The Swiss National Bank hiked its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 1%.

Norway
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2022:

Euro Zone
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2022: 2.5%
The European Central Bank hiked its policy interest rates by 50 basis points at its December 15th meeting, in line with expectations.

Canada
Housing Starts
Nov. 2022: 264 ths
Canada's residential construction data for November came in a touch weaker than in October.

United States
Jobless Claims
December 10: 211,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance declined even more than our below-consensus forecast.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Dec. 2022: -11.2
Factory sentiment has gone south again in New York, according to the December Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Dec. 2022: -13.8
Responses to the Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey continue to signal a contraction in activity in the Federal Reserve’s Third District.

United States
Retail Sales
Nov. 2022: -0.6%, m/m
Retail sales sputtered in November, falling more than anticipated after broad-based strong growth in October.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Dec. 2022: 3.5%
The Bank of England raised U.K. interest rates by a further 50 basis points to 3.5% in its December meeting, the highest since October 2008.

United States
Industrial Production
Nov. 2022: -0.2% m/m
Industrial production in the U.S. fell 0.2% in November, weaker than our forecast of 0%.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Oct. 2022: 0.3% m/m
Business inventories increased 0.3% from September to October.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
December 09: 0.25
Financial market stress surged last week with the St.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2022Q3: 4.1% q/q SAAR
Global growth accelerated in the third quarter after a very weak second quarter; our preliminary estimate of annualized GDP came in at 4.1% q/q, up from a 0.3% rise previously.

Colombia
Industrial Production
Oct. 2022: 5.3% y/y
Manufacturing output growth in Colombia has started to slow amid weakening domestic and external demand.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
December 09: -50 bil cubic feet
Last week’s decline in natural gas inventories beat analyst expectations, which could put some upward pressure on gas prices.

United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Nov. 2022: 43.3 weeks, NSA
New-vehicle affordability took a hit again in November.

Peru
Unemployment
Nov. 2022: 7.6%
Job market conditions in Peru are not great, and the lukewarm November report further underlines this assessment.

Mexico
Monetary Policy
Dec. 2022: 10.50%
The Bank of Mexico continued to tighten monetary conditions in December as underlying inflation continued to trend up.

Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2022: 92.4% y/y
Argentina's statistics office’s national consumer price index increased 4.9% m/m in November, compared with 2.5% a year earlier.

Argentina
GDP
2022Q3: 5.9% y/y
The Argentine economy expanded 5.9% y/y in the third quarter after 7.1% y/y in the previous quarter.

Uruguay
GDP
2022Q3: 3.7% y/y
The Uruguayan economy posted another higher-than-expected expansion in the third quarter, boosted by exports, consumer spending and investment.

United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Oct. 2022: $67.8 bil
Net long-term capital flows continue to slow but remain positive.

Singapore
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2022: