| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Federal Reserve Plots a New Course Labor market improvements and still-high inflation have caused the Fed to signal quicker rate hikes. Capital Market View: Hawks Fly at December FOMC Meeting The Fed accelerates tapering and signals sooner, additional rate hikes next year. LatAm Daily Briefing: Borrowing Costs Are Surging Private and foreign investors are wary of political instability. U.S. Retail Inflation Not Uniform There are segments with price movements near historic norms. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Federal Outlook: Checking Off the Year-End To-Do List Congress has averted a shutdown and a first-ever default, but the BBBA is unresolved. When the Condors Rise Above the Hawks: What's Behind the Tightening Cycle in LatAm Since the region's summer surge in inflation, central banks have hiked interest rates quickly. Global Vaccine Tracker: Pandemic Heads Into 2022 New COVID-19 treatments appear on the horizon. This Week in the COVID-19 Recovery It’s time to take stock of the 2021 U.S. economy and consider the prospects for 2022. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Finland
Retail Sales
Oct. 2021: 0.0% m/m
Finland's seasonally adjusted retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, had a null reading after the upwardly revised 0.5% m/m increase in September. France
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2021: 2.8% y/y
France’s headline inflation rate sped up to 2.8% y/y in November from 2.6% in October. Spain
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2021: 5.5% y/y
Spain's consumer price index rose by 5.5% in yearly terms in November after a 5.4% gain in October. United Kingdom
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2021: 5.1% y/y
The U.K. Italy
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2021: 3.7% y/y
Italy’s headline inflation rate climbed to 3.7% y/y in November, the highest since September 2008, from 3% previously. United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
December 10: -4.0%
Mortgage applications declined 4% in the week of December 10, after a modest increase of 2% in the prior week. Belgium
Industrial Production
Oct. 2021: 9.1% y/y
Belgium's industrial production index grew by 9.1% in October on a year-ago basis, but the index fell 3.8% on a monthly basis from September to October. Canada
Housing Starts
Nov. 2021: 301 ths
Canada’s housing starts are bucking the trend in the Canadian housing market. Canada
Consumer Price Index
Nov. 2021: 4.7% y/y
Consumer price inflation appears to be cresting. Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Oct. 2021: 4.3% m/m
Manufacturing broke with its recently weak trend in October. United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Dec. 2021: 31.9
Manufacturers in New York feel similarly about their prospects as they did a month ago, according to the December Empire State Manufacturing Survey. United States
Import and Export Prices
Nov. 2021: 0.7% m/m
U.S. import prices rose 0.7% in November following a revised 1.5% gain in October (previously 1.2%). United States
Retail Sales
Nov. 2021: 0.3%, m/m
Retail sales growth remained healthy in November, although not as strong as in October, and growth may still be inflated by early holiday shopping exceeding what seasonal factors expect. United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
December 10: 347.8 4-wk MA
The four-week moving average in our U.S. India
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2021: -US$22.9 bil
India’s merchandise trade deficit widened in November, up from $19.7 billion in October to $22.9 billion, the largest monthly deficit on record. Peru
Unemployment
Nov. 2021: 9.1%
The November jobs report was big in flesh but less ripe at its core, with long-overdue job gains contrasting with the quality of jobs created. Colombia
Industrial Production
Oct. 2021: 10.1% y/y
Manufacturing output continued to expand at a solid pace in October, as the number of new COVID-19 cases remained low, unleashing pent-up demand. World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2021Q3: 3.7% q/q SAAR
Global annualized growth picked up in the third quarter, with GDP expanding by 3.7%, 0.3 percentage point above second-quarter growth. United States
NAHB Housing Market Index
Dec. 2021: 84
Homebuilder confidence inched up 1 point to 84 in December. United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Oct. 2021: 1.2% m/m
Business inventories increased by 1.2% from September to October. United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
December 12: 2.62%
Inflation expectations held mostly flat in the week ended December 12, according to the Moody’s Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse. United States
Oil Inventories
December 10: 428.3 mil barrels
A much larger than expected decline in oil inventories will push up on oil prices. United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Nov. 2021: 43.08 weeks, NSA
In November, new-vehicle affordability declined for the eighth consecutive month. United States
FOMC Monetary Policy
Dec. 2021: 0% to 0.25%
The Federal Reserve underestimated the amount of inflation that would occur this year, and now it is responding. United States
Treasury International Capital Flows
Oct. 2021: $7.1 bil
Net long-term capital flows were positive in October, with net inflows totaling $7.1 billion, compared with inflows of $26.7 billion in September. New Zealand
GDP
2021Q3:
Japan
Foreign Trade
Nov. 2021:
Australia
Employment Situation
Nov. 2021:
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